- For some, the reappearance of a once-powerful strongman Joseph Kabila raises concerns about instability; for others, it sparks speculation about whether he is staging a calculated return to power—or simply creating noise to protect old interests.
- This environment is fertile ground for political disruption—and Kabila, a man who led Congo for nearly two decades — knows this terrain very
- Already, the Congo River Alliance and M23 factions are actively welcoming his presence, and Congolese authorities have been unable to control his movements in the east.
When Joseph Kabila, the former President of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), reemerged in the rebel-controlled flashpoint of Goma earlier this year, it sent ripples through a nation already navigating fragile peace talks and deep political uncertainty. For some, the reappearance of a once-powerful strongman raised concerns about instability; for others, it sparked speculation about whether Kabila is staging a calculated return to power—or simply creating noise to protect old interests.
After nearly five years of political silence following his controversial handover to President Félix Tshisekedi in 2019, Kabila’s sudden return during a critical phase of U.S.-backed peace efforts is more than coincidence. It demands a closer look at motives, legacies, and the potential fallout for Congo’s already precarious political future.
Why Now? A Calculated Return Amid Rising Instability
Kabila’s reemergence is unfolding just as Congo enters yet another volatile moment. A U.S.-brokered peace accord aimed at curbing the violent resurgence of the M23 rebels in the east has just been signed. President Tshisekedi’s government, although still legally in power, is facing legitimacy questions, heightened public dissatisfaction, and fragile coalition politics. This environment is fertile ground for political disruption—and Kabila knows this terrain well.
His timing is suspicious. Just as the Tshisekedi administration works to secure fragile agreements and calm eastern provinces, Kabila appears in Goma, a city deeply affected by years of armed conflict and rebel activity. Reports suggest the Congo River Alliance and M23 factions are actively welcoming his presence, and Congolese authorities have been unable to exert control over his movements in the region.
This raises a crucial question: Is Kabila exploiting eastern instability to project relevance and sow discord in an already polarized political arena?
Kabila’s Record: What Has Really Changed?
Joseph Kabila governed the DRC from 2001 to 2019, inheriting the presidency after his father Laurent-Désiré Kabila’s assassination. His 18-year rule—marked by delayed elections, rampant corruption, repression of dissent, and questionable handling of the country’s vast mineral wealth—left a legacy that many Congolese remember with frustration, if not resentment.
His 2006 electoral victory, hailed as a democratic milestone, quickly soured amid allegations of vote-rigging and cronyism. The 2011 re-election drew widespread protests, and when his constitutional term expired in 2016, he clung to power for two more years, delaying elections until 2018. During that time, the security situation deteriorated further, and the repression of civil society and political opponents intensified.
Now, with his reappearance and public statements criticizing Tshisekedi for authoritarianism and corruption, one might ask: has Kabila turned a new leaf, or is this the pot calling the kettle black?
In a recent online video address—his first public remarks in years—Kabila accused the Tshisekedi government of undermining democracy and enabling graft. While his words echo widespread public concerns, his credibility remains in question. Many recall that under his leadership, Congo’s immense mineral wealth was siphoned off, benefitting foreign corporations and entrenched elites, while most Congolese remained in poverty.
If Kabila’s re-entry is built on criticism of a failing government, it’s fair to ask: where was this wisdom when he was in charge?
A Bid to Protect Elite Interests?
One theory gaining traction among political analysts is that Kabila’s reappearance is less about a national rescue mission and more about safeguarding economic and political interests under threat. Since assuming office, President Tshisekedi has sought to unravel some of the entrenched networks built during the Kabila years—networks that link politics, business, and military elites.
By positioning himself as a critic and potential alternative, Kabila may be trying to rally loyalists, protect economic interests, and resist reforms that could expose corruption from his era. His base in Goma, located in the mineral-rich and conflict-ridden east, also raises the specter of using soft power or parallel influence channels to undercut central authority.
Is Kabila’s resurgence an effort to leverage old patronage systems and signal to former allies that the old guard is still watching—and still willing to act?
Conflict resolution expert Elodie Ntamuzinda has argued that completely sidelining Kabila is “counterproductive” to national cohesion. While dialogue is a worthwhile goal, critics warn that giving him space without demanding accountability risks legitimizing obstruction rather than fostering reconciliation.
Read also: Joseph Kabila: Everyone is talking about DRC without the Congolese—this is not normal
Can He Destabilize the Peace Process?
Kabila’s presence in Goma—a hub for rebel activity—raises serious regional concerns. The M23 movement, accused of receiving Rwandan support, has reignited violence across eastern Congo, displacing hundreds of thousands. While the government blames foreign interference, others point to internal weaknesses, including the absence of credible local leadership in the east.
Could Kabila be positioning himself as that missing leadership figure? His long-standing ties to the military, experience with rebel factions, and deep knowledge of Congo’s fractured power dynamics make him uniquely placed to either ease tensions or inflame them.
Tresor Kibangula, political director at the Ebuteli research institute, told DW that Kabila is a “shadow power” operating outside official channels. If allowed to rally support unchecked, Kabila could derail peace efforts, fragment national dialogue initiatives, and push the country toward another cycle of elite-driven instability.
Given the stakes of the current peace process, any ambiguity surrounding Kabila’s motives should not be taken lightly.
Public Sentiment: A Hunger for Change, Not the Past
Perhaps the most critical lens through which to view Kabila’s return is public perception. After decades of war, displacement, and failed leadership, many Congolese—especially the youth—are disillusioned with politics altogether. The initial hope that accompanied Tshisekedi’s election has given way to frustration, especially over continued insecurity in the east and lackluster economic progress. But does that mean the public is ready to embrace Kabila again?
Most signs point to a resounding no. As Kibangula said in a DW interview, “there is no strong popular nostalgia for Kabila in the country today.” While he may still hold sway over parts of the political elite and regional actors, there is little grassroots enthusiasm for a Kabila revival.
The Congolese people are hungry for new leadership, new ideas, and a break from the cycles of exploitation and repression that have marked much of their post-independence history. Kabila’s reappearance feels to many like the recycling of old problems, not the offering of new solutions.
A Disruption Masquerading as a Comeback?
In the end, Kabila’s return appears more like a tactical disruption than a genuine comeback. Whether it’s timed to discredit Tshisekedi, derail peace talks, or protect elite interests, it lacks the transparency, humility, and national mandate required of a true statesman.
To be clear, the DRC’s current challenges—ranging from militia violence and foreign interference to economic despair and political fragmentation—require inclusive dialogue and broad-based cooperation. But inclusion should not mean impunity. And participation should not be a smokescreen for power games.
If Kabila seeks to contribute to peace and national unity, let him begin by acknowledging his past, committing to truth-telling, and supporting institutional reforms that go beyond personal power.
Until then, his return should be treated not as a hopeful comeback—but as a calculated distraction Congo can ill afford.
Read also: Joseph Kabila: A second chance at nation-building?
