• Egyptian Professor of Geology claims its only a matter of time before Ethiopia’s GERD dam collapses when filled to capacity.
  • GERD was designed to hold 11 billion cubic meters, but its capacity was increased to 60 billion cubic meters – which raises many concerns, especially since Ethiopia is a country prone to earthquakes, the scholar states
  • African’s praise GERD achievements on social media #ItsMyDam, #GERDisYourDam

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is at risk of collapse, an Egyptian media outlet reported recently. The ‘Egypt Independent’ quoted a Cairo University Professor of Geology and Water Resources Abbas Sharaky allegedly saying that “GERD was designed to hold 11 billion cubic meters, but its capacity was increased to 60 billion cubic meters – which raises many concerns, especially since Ethiopia is a country prone to earthquakes.”

In the article titled ‘Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is at its utmost limit and risks collapse,’ the professor added that; “Ethiopia contains the largest number of volcanoes behind the passage of the biggest rift in the world in Addis Ababa.” According to him, even though the said rift is 500 kilometers away, “it will potentially impact the dam especially if the earthquakes are particularly strong.”

With that warning, he stressed that Egypt has “categorically rejected Ethiopia’s unilateral policies that violate the rules and principles of international law, which constitute a clear violation of the Declaration of Principles Agreement and the Security Council’s presidential statement of September 15, 2021.”

He accused Ethiopia of “using the negotiations as a cover to prolong reaching any solution,” but maintained that Egypt had what he described as “sincerest intentions.” The professor was referring to the over a decade-long failed talks between the two sides (and other countries using the Nile waters). After hitting a stale end, both countries turned to the UN, each accusing the other of intransigence.

In their latest appeal, accusations and rebuttals at the UN (Sept 2024), Ethiopia called on UN officials to “…take note of Egypt’s repeated threat to use force against Ethiopia.” Ethiopia asked the UN to caution Egypt against, “its aggressive approach.”

This was in response to Egypt’s initial letter to the UN Security Council in which it accused Ethiopia of “violating international law by continuing to fill the dam without agreement from downstream countries.” However, Ethiopia lashed back and described Egypt’s concerns as, “a litany of unfounded allegations.”

Ethiopia says it’s concerns of ‘threats of aggression’ by Egypt are evident in the latter’s most recent military ties with Somalia, which has its own bone to pick with authorities in Addis Ababa.

Taking no chances, Ethiopia is reported to have increased security in and around the dam. BBC quotes its Kenya-based Horn of Africa security analyst Rashid Abdi reporting that “Ethiopia is stepping up security around the dam.”

The security analysts says Ethiopia’s “defensive measures include declaring the Benishangul-Gumuz region, where the dam is located, a restricted airspace, and there are also reports that Ethiopia is putting up anti-aircraft batteries around the dam. It probably fears reconnaissance flights by Egypt.”

Also Read: Power giant Wärtsilä shares roadmap for East Africa’s energy future

GERD: Is the threat of collapse real?

The Egyptian scholar maintains that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) was meant to hold 11 billion cubic meters, but is now shooting for 60 billion cubic meters; “which raises many concerns of collapse,” he warns.

He backs up his warning with a claim that Ethiopia contains a large number of volcanoes, and seats on top of the biggest rift in the world. According to him, these factors coupled with potential earthquakes all point to a devastating potential collapse of the dam; but is the professor correct?

Several other Egyptian experts have asserted similar claims, in 2023, the paper ‘Flood propagation modeling: Case study the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance dam failure’ was published by the Alexandria Engineering Journal.
The paper asserts: ‘Dams’ failure analysis plays a crucial role in the development of dam safety planning and emergency action.’

That said, it claims; ‘ Since the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has been built, there have been many concerns about its safety and its effects on downstream countries in case of its failure.’

The paper goes ahead and models the GERD breaking using what the experts call the USACE Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS).

“Two dimensions model under different failure scenarios was suggested. Moreover, outflow hydrographs and flood inundation maps were presented due to dam breach. Finally, it was concluded that, in case of catastrophic failure, flow depths may vary from 3 to 10 m in some residential areas, such as Khartoum. Furthermore, the water surface elevation may reach 184 m above msl (mean sea level) in Lake Nasser in case of dam failure with a fully stored GERD reservoir,” warns the paper.

It goes on to warn that in the event of a collapse; “…the maximum flow would reach 325,928 m3/sec which is more than 21.5 times the total capacity of the dam spillway.”

“From time immemorial, Egypt has feared the prospect of Ethiopia holding back the Nile waters and has perceived this possibility as an existential risk,” explains Dale Whittington in his 2024 paper titled ‘Should Egypt be afraid of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam? The consequences of adversarial water policy on the Blue Nile.’

“However, there are no analyses in the published literature that quantify how much harm Ethiopia could inflict on Egypt,” the writer admits.

 

GERD power production trials

Steve Floyd reports on ongoing power generation trials at the GERD which started in 2022.

“The trials will produce 700 megawatts (MW) of electricity, but the dam will generate 5,150 MW once filled to capacity. Such sustainable power will prove a boon for Ethiopia’s economy, bring U.N. Sustainable Development Goals within reach and benefit the broader region,” he writes.

He also notes how popular the dam is among Africans; “With funding from civil servant donations, diaspora support and the sale of bonds to private citizens, the GERD has become a symbol of national pride.”

The writer points out trending social media tags of the dam such as hashtags like #ItsMyDam, #GERDisYourDam and #EthiopiaPrevails and the fact that “…people across Africa praised the milestone (power generation trials) on social media.”

“The World Bank estimates that half of its population lacks regular access to electricity. Such abundant power would help Ethiopia achieve the U.N. Sustainable Development Goal for affordable, accessible energy, and the dam could provide surplus electricity to the broader region,” he writes.

 

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Giza Mdoe is an experienced journalist with 10 plus years. He's been a Creative Director on various brand awareness campaigns and a former Copy Editor for some of Tanzania's leading newspapers. He's a graduate with a BA in Journalism from the University of San Jose. Contact me at giza.m@mediapix.com

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