Namibia elections 2024 the most competitive SWAPO

Namibia elections on Wednesday might be the most competitive election yet for the ruling SWAPO party.
SWAPO has seen its popularity dwindle in Namibia as the populace grows increasingly frustrated with corruption, excessive inequality, and a lack of employment opportunities.
Namibia’s election system allocates the 96 elected seats in the National Assembly based on the percentage of the votes won by each party.

Socioeconomic Political Dynamics in Namibia Elections

According to the World Bank, Namibia is an upper-middle-income country with high levels of poverty and inequality. According to a government study in 2021, 43 percent of the population lives in “multidimensional poverty,” which includes income and access to education and public services. Moreover, Namibia ranks second in the world for income disparity, after only neighboring South Africa. Both nations endured decades of white minority domination.

Namibians go to the polls on Wednesday in what many predict will be the most competitive election yet for the ruling SWAPO party, which has been in power since 1990. The elections come as Namibia prepares to become a significant oil and gas producer.

Despite 35 years of dominance, the South West Africa People’s Organization has seen its popularity dwindle in Namibia as the populace grows increasingly frustrated with corruption, excessive inequality, and a lack of employment opportunities.

SWAPO’s candidate, 72-year-old deputy president Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, would make history if elected as Namibia’s first female leader. A SWAPO loss would mean the first transition of power to a new party since Namibia gained independence from apartheid South Africa in 1990.

The Independent Patriots for Change, a political group that has existed for four years, poses the biggest threat to the ruling party. Panduleni Itula, the group’s founder and a former SWAPO member who vied for the presidency as an independent in 2019 and received 29 percent of the vote, is considered the most formidable opponent to Nandi-Ndaitwah. Itula faces 14 other candidates.

According to a July study by Afrobarometer, 76 percent of Namibians think the nation is going in the wrong direction. The top worries of the respondents were corruption and unemployment.

Southern Africa’s Changing Political Dynamics

According to observers, independence-era parties in southern Africa compete with a younger populace that does not remember the liberation war and is more inclined to assess them based on their track record of service delivery and job creation.

According to the survey, Botswana, where the long-serving ruling party came in fourth place in elections held on October 30, and Mauritius, where an opposition alliance took all sixty legislative seats in a vote held on November 10, demonstrated comparable dissatisfaction with the current status quo.

Henning Melber, an associate at the Nordic Africa Institute at the University of Uppsala, says that SWAPO, which received 65 percent of the vote in 2019, might lose its parliamentary majority.

“We witness more political contestation, with new challenging the dominance of Swapo parties,” he said. “In the absence of reliable voter surveys or polls ahead of the election, much is left to assumptions and speculation.”

“There is a possibility that the ruling party, SWAPO, could face a similar fate to the ANC in South Africa or the BDP in Botswana,” political analyst Ndumba Kamwanyah said.

In May, the African National Congress (ANC) of South Africa was forced to form a coalition following 30 years in power.

Economic and Resource Management

Companies like Shell Plc and TotalEnergies SE have recently made offshore deposits in the Orange Basin, so the incoming administration must manage the expected hydrocarbon boom.

According to the government, commercial production is expected to start as early as 2029. The government also expects the income to impact Namibia’s economy profoundly. But the opposition has warned that Swapo has a track record of mishandling the country’s diamonds and uranium. Unless transparency and accountability are emphasized, only a tiny group will profit from the country’s oil and gas revenues.

Numerous more obstacles will also befall the country’s incoming leaders: The housing issue is getting out of hand; the unemployment rate is at 43 percent; the country is in the midst of a debilitating drought that has significantly depleted water supplies; and the number of people living in shacks has increased from 16 percent in 2011 to over a third of the population.

Namibia’s Electoral System

Namibia’s election system allocates the 96 elected seats in the National Assembly based on the percentage of the votes won by each party. Namibians vote separately for parliament members and the president. To win the presidency, a candidate must receive more than 50 percent of the votes; otherwise, a runoff election is held.

The current president is Nangolo Mbumba, 83, who took power in February following the death of Hage Geingob. He declined to run for the entire term. Some 1.47 million people have registered to cast ballots, a 12.7 per cent increase since the last national election five years ago.

“This will be the most challenging and significant election after the first one of 1989,” Rui Tyitende, a lecturer at the University of Namibia, said.

According to Tyitende, the outcome would largely hinge on the turnout of young voters, who comprise more than half the electorate and are more likely to support the opposition.

“Young people are disproportionately affected by unemployment and poverty and consumed with a deep sense of hopelessness. If they do not pitch, SWAPO will win.” Tyitende said.