Driven by a deep-seated hunger for change in Nigeria, on pins and needles citizens remain, eagerly awaiting the announcement of the country’s next president, which should happen any time from now, following the February 25th  general election. The slow collation and reporting of the votes by Nigeria’s electoral commission, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), has only fueled the anxiety, coupled with whispers of electoral interference that the Commission has thwarted.

The three front-runners out of the initial 18 candidates are Peter Obi, Bola Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar. Results from 176,846 polling stations are being counted manually and then relayed electronically to the INEC’s headquarters in Abuja, which then posts them on its website.

As of February 28, Tinubu leads in 25 out of Nigeria’s 36 states. Tinubu leads with 36% which translates to 7 million of the valid votes counted, Atiku is close behind with 30% an equivalent of 6 million valid votes. Obi has received 20% which equals 3.8 million valid votes.

Upon verification of tallies from all states and the federal territory of Abuja, INEC chairman will proceed to announce the national results and declare a winner. A candidate needs to obtain the highest number of votes nationwide, and 25% of ballots cast in two-thirds of Nigeria’s 36 states to be declared the winner. If no candidate achieves that, a runoff will be held within 21 days between the top two candidates making it the first in Nigeria’s history.

In what was described as Africa’s biggest democratic exercise days ago, Nigerians turned up in large numbers to cast their vote in the tightest race since the end of military rule in 1999. The voting itself was marred by delays at polling stations that saw the exercise spill over to Sunday, equipment failure as a result of using the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) for the first time and pockets of tension and voter suppression in some parts of the country. Apart from these hitches, the exercise was considered largely peaceful.

The voter turnout was historic, eliciting comments from prominent citizens such as Africa’s richest man Aliko Dangote and the World Trade Organization (WHO) Director-General Ngozi Okonjo- Iweala. Indeed, Nigerians, and especially the youth, are hungry for change. Approximately 93.4 million voters registered to vote, with a third of the 87 million eligible voters being young people.

Voters in Africa’s most populous country cast their ballot with high expectations, that the next president will usher in a new dawn for this West African nation whose immense potential has been stifled by insecurity, endemic corruption, unemployment, cash shortage crisis, historic inflation levels that has brought the economy to its knees.

How did Nigeria get here? What ails this great West African nation?

‘Oh, how the mighty has fallen!’ Africa’s largest economy and the most populous nation is teetering on the edge of a precipice, grappling with a historic polycrisis. Once a stable economy now remains what can only be called a fledgling failed state, whose citizens are making a mass exodus in search of greener pastures abroad. This has been referred to as the ‘japa’ phenomenon which means flee in Yoruba. Conditions have become unbearable for many in Nigeria and they have been relocating in large numbers mostly to North America and Europe.

According to the Africa Polling Institute 2022 survey, 69 percent of Nigerians would leave the country with their families if given a chance. This is almost double the number from their 2019 poll where only 39% were willing to emigrate. Many citizens have lamented and blamed outgoing President Buhari for the dilapidated state of the country rife with chronic systemic failures.

The most urgent and pressing issue is to resolve the cash shortage crisis which has plunged Nigeria into an unprecedented quandary. The quest to replace old paper money with newly designed currency notes has created a chronic shortage of cash. Consequently, this has left many citizens at a crossroads as it has rendered it impossible for people to buy basic goods, forcing the closure of businesses.

Furthermore, insecurity has wreaked havoc in Nigeria for years, pertinently in the fight against militant Islamist groups in parts of the North, which has largely retarded economic growth. Currently, the country is witnessing a kidnapping-for-ransom crisis with many Nigerians living in constant fear of being kidnapped and held for ransom by armed gangs, especially in the North-West part of the country. Thousands of people have had to flee their homes due to the conflict in the North.

Moreover, there has been an upsurge in politically motivated attacks, farmer-herder wrangles, crime and police brutality. This has made many Nigerians lose faith in state protection and hence their pursuit for greener pastures abroad.

To boot, the endemic corruption in Nigeria has aggravated poverty levels and unemployment. According to Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics, 33% of the population is unemployed, an increase to 42.5% for the youth. Despite being one of Africa’s oil producer’s, Nigeria suffers from the proverbial ‘resource curse’ whereby the ‘resource advantage’ has instead deepened poverty levels, unemployment and perpetuated a culture of corruption that has crippled the economy.

According to statistics from the World Bank, four out of 10 Nigerians live below the poverty line and lack education and access to basic infrastructure, such as electricity, safe drinking water, and improved sanitation. Nearly 40% of the country’s 5-11-year-olds are not in school which is alarming by any measure and further exacerbates poverty levels and insecurity.

Oil production has been plummeting in the last decade, but in 2022 it declined to its lowest level in 30 years. This has been attributed to the ageing oil fields, under investment in the sector and oil theft and vandalism. In similar vein, Nigeria is dealing with high inflation levels which currently stand at 21.8 percent, the highest in two decades, worsened by the Russian-Ukraine conflict.

This has led to the rise in food prices occasioned by border closures to numerous imports, triggering a foreign exchange scarcity that has dented the economy. Access to power is additionally a problem according to data from the World Bank, with only 55 % of the population having access to electricity. Besides, a paltry 36 percent of Nigerians have access to internet services.

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Major tasks ahead for Nigeria’s new president elect

Nigeria’s choice has an enormous task ahead if he is to restore Nigeria’s economy. His priority list shall include:

• Instilling confidence in Nigerian citizenry that indeed things are going to change for the better. A majority of those making the mass exodus are middle-class families with valuable skills that could be used in Nigeria to rebuild its economy. For this to happen, citizens will need to trust the new government to implement systemic changes.
• Tackling insecurity head on and utilizing any arsenal at their disposal to ensure citizens are safe in their own country.
• Resolve the cash shortage crisis.
• Create employment opportunities especially for the youth.
• Eradicate corruption by any means necessary, which could include adopting harsher penalties for the culprits.
• Revamp oil production by repairing oil fields, attracting investments and effectively dealing with bandits. Revenues from the oil resource should benefit both the Nigerian citizenry and for export as well.
• The government will need to make institutions work by conducting a complete overhaul and inculcating effective strategies to ensure citizens enjoy basic amenities such as water and sanitation services, electricity, education, healthcare and internet connectivity.

Who exactly are these frontrunners and what change can they bring to Nigeria?

• Bola Ahmed Tinubu

This septuagenarian of the All Progressive Congress (APC) party, popularly known as the ‘political god father in the South-West region’ and also as “Jagaban” by his supporters, Bola believes he has what it takes to revive Nigeria, so much so that he feels a sense of entitlement to the position. This is vividly captured in his campaign slogan ‘Emi Lokan’ translated from Yoruba to mean ‘it’s my turn to be president,’

This slogan has come under criticism coupled with his tendency to describe himself as a kingmaker, for aiding Buhari to become president. Moreover, his entitlement is not without basis as he was a member of the pro-democracy National Democratic Coalition (Nadeco) group that opposed the military ruler Sani Abacha, and was even exiled but eventually their efforts to bring democracy in Nigeria bore fruit in 1999.

He is an ethnic Yoruba Muslim from the country’s southwest. Together with the incumbent Muhammadu Buhari, they founded APC in 2013. He wields massive influence, being the former governor of Lagos from 1999 to 2007 during which he is credited for transforming Lagos, growing its income through foreign investments and upgrading public infrastructure. If elected he will be leveraging on his vast experience in politics and huge influence across the country. His stoic image has been tainted by allegations of corruption and poor health, both of which he refutes. He has in the past been accused of money laundering, fraud, tax evasion, drug trafficking and corrupt practices, with the source of his wealth coming to question. Nigerians are keen on electing a president without health issues lest history repeats itself, as it did in 2010 with the death of the then incumbent President Umaru Yar’Adua’s death in office.

Tinubu picked Kashim Shettima, as his running mate, a Muslim and former governor from northeastern Borno state. The decision has been widely frowned upon as breaking from the tradition of having a mixed faith ticket for the presidency. In defense of his choice, Tinubu said his move was based on competence in order to attract voters in the predominantly Muslim North. Among his promises to Nigerians, is the expansion of the military in order to end Islamist insurgency, which has been wreaking havoc in the North. However, Nigerians have heard this promise before from Buhari who has failed to deliver in his two terms. Is his promise among the ‘pie in the sky’ lot or can he actually achieve it? It remains to be seen, if he becomes Nigeria’s choice.

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• Atiku Abubakar

Resilience is the word that best describes Atiku Abubakar of the main opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP)nhaving previously ran for this top job five times, all of which he lost. Will this sixth time be a charm?

The 76-year-old and former Vice President is a northern Muslim from the Fulani ethnic group. His campaign builds upon the foundation of his achievements as the vice-president, between 1999 and 2007. During his tenure he headed an economic team that established successful reforms in the banking, pensions and telecommunication sectors. By the same token, he implemented a policy that enabled the private sector to play a pivotal role in building Nigeria’s economy, which resulted in both GDP growth and job creation. Over his campaign period, he has made promises to implement more of such practical and feasible policies that benefit Nigerians. However, his major hurdle has been appealing to the younger electorate.

For his running mate, Abubakar’s choice fell on Ifeanyi Arthur Okowa, a Christian governor from the oil-producing Delta state, in a move to garner support in the largely Christian South. Having had a northerner in the presidential office for the past two terms, Southern governors feel it’s about time the South had their turn.

A major setback to his chances of winning has been accusations of misappropriation of funds and cronyism during his time in public office. However, like Tinubu he has denied all the allegations. Abubakar, has sworn to bring to an end the perennial insecurity quagmire and like Tinubu, he plans to fortify the military and pump more equipment to battle the Islamic extremist insurgency, secessionists in the Southeast and rebels in the northwest and any other emergent criminal gangs.

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• Peter Obi

The choice of the majority of the youth and urban populace in Nigeria, Peter Obi of the Labour Party is keen to break the yoke of the country’s two-party system that has dominated Nigeria since the end of military rule in 1999.

Mr Obi is a devout Igbo Catholic from eastern Nigeria, and has previously served as governor of the South-eastern Anambra state from 2006 to 2014. Obi who is up against political heavyweights, has also been leveraging on his performance and successes as governor, which recorded a rare budget surplus a decade ago. He had taken a stab at the high office in 2019, as Abubakar’s running mate for the PDP but dropped out.

In comparison to the other two candidates, Obi has the cleanest track record with only minor allegations of tax evasion, which he has openly denied. Albeit not popular in the Muslim-dominated North, whose votes are considered vital in winning any presidential race, Obi enjoys fervent support from large swathes of youthful populace known as ‘OBIdients.’

These are mostly urban dwellers who call themselves the ‘Coconut-head generation’. The name traces its origins from their contempt of the older political class that has done the least to address their issues. In response, they are independent, resolute and strong-willed, as depicted on social media where they pledge their support of Obi.

However, more prominently, Obi is known for his sound management and frugality, which has appealed to his supporters. Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed, was Obi’s choice for a running mate, an economist and former Senator from the northern Kaduna state. Besides deepening finances to support the fight against Islamist insurgent groups, Obi has inculcated economic diversification of Nigeria’s economy as part of his manifesto, in an effort to curb the heavy dependence on oil exports. If he clinches the position, he hopes to bolster the private sector and restructure Nigeria’s mounting debt.