Balancing U.S.-Africa relations under Trump's final term

The new Trump administration faces a policy conundrum in pushing for democracy in Africa’s most fragile zones.
Trump’s previous skepticism toward multilateralism and international aid raises questions about how his administration will engage with regional bodies like the AU.
Trump’s previous focus on trade could provide a framework for re-engagement like AGOA and perhaps supporting AfCFTA.

As Donald Trump prepares to begin his second term as President of the United States in February 2025, his administration will need to confront the complexities of U.S.-Africa relations. Africa, home to over 1.4 billion people and rich in resources, remains a key player on the global stage. Yet, the continent is marred by challenges such as challenges in its democratic ideals, military coups, and persistent governance crises.

For Trump, striking a balance between promoting democratic ideals and safeguarding U.S. strategic interests could be a defining challenge during his second term as president.

The state of democracy in Africa

In recent years, Africa has witnessed a troubling rise in political instability. According to data from the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, the continent has experienced over a dozen military coups since 2020, with countries like Sudan, Mali, Sierra Leone, Guinea, and Niger falling victim to authoritarian takeovers.

These events reflect a broader trend of democratic backsliding, as corruption, voter suppression, and weak institutions continue to erode democratic norms.

The Trump administration is likely to face a policy conundrum: how to respond to these challenges without jeopardizing U.S. influence. During Trump’s first term, his administration demonstrated a transactional approach to diplomacy, often prioritizing security and economic interests over human rights concerns. It remains to be seen whether this stance will persist or evolve into a more values-driven policy.

The role of U.S. diplomacy

Diplomatic engagement with African nations has long been a cornerstone of U.S. foreign policy. Initiatives such as the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit, first held during the Obama administration and continued by Joe Biden, have aimed to foster partnerships rooted in mutual respect and shared interests.

However, Trump’s previous skepticism toward multilateralism and international aid raises questions about how his administration will engage with regional bodies like the African Union (AU).

One potential approach could involve leveraging existing programs to strengthen democratic governance. The Biden administration’s U.S. Strategy Toward Sub-Saharan Africa highlighted the need for transparent governance, human rights protections, and anti-corruption measures.

Trump’s team could expand on this framework, focusing on capacity-building initiatives to empower local institutions while addressing systemic governance issues.

Strategic interests vs. democratic values

The choice between promoting democracy and pursuing strategic interests will be particularly pronounced in regions like the Sahel and Horn of Africa. These areas are hotbeds of extremism, where U.S. counterterrorism objectives often necessitate partnerships with authoritarian regimes. For instance, in Chad and Egypt, the U.S. has historically prioritized military alliances over democratic reforms.

The Trump administration may choose to maintain this approach, underscoring stability over democratization. However, this strategy carries risks. Supporting repressive regimes could alienate civil society actors and undermine long-term efforts to build sustainable governance structures

The human rights question under Trump

Human rights have often been a contentious issue in U.S.-Africa relations. During Trump’s first term, for instance, his administration faced criticism for its perceived indifference to human rights abuses, such as the violent suppression of protests in Nigeria and Ethiopia.

A renewed focus on human rights could enhance U.S. credibility and moral authority, particularly in contrast to rivals like China and Russia, whose engagements in Africa often avoid these concerns.

To this end, the Trump administration could adopt a dual-track approach: applying diplomatic pressure on governments to uphold human rights while supporting grassroots organizations and activists.

Programs such as the Young African Leaders Initiative (YALI) could be expanded to foster a new generation of leaders committed to democratic principles and human rights.

Managing geopolitical rivalries

Africa has become a battleground for geopolitical competition, with China and Russia vying for influence through infrastructure projects, military cooperation, and economic investments. For Trump administration to counter these efforts from Beijing, it will be compelled to offer African nations compelling alternatives.

Trump’s previous focus on trade could provide a framework for re-engagement. Expanding trade agreements such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and supporting the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) could bolster economic ties.

Additionally, fostering technology partnerships and infrastructure investments could help counter rising Chinese dominance in these sectors.

Pragmatic considerations for U.S.-Africa relations

Balancing democracy and diplomacy in Africa will require a nuanced approach that aligns U.S. values with pragmatic considerations. Key recommendations for the Trump administration could include:

Enhancing Support for Democratic Institutions: Invest in programs that strengthen electoral systems, judiciary independence, and civil society networks.
Adopting Targeted Sanctions: Use sanctions judiciously to penalize human rights violations without alienating entire populations.
Expanding Economic Engagement: Deepen trade and investment ties while promoting transparency and accountability in resource governance.
Strengthening Regional Partnerships: Work closely with the AU and sub-regional bodies to address conflicts and promote democratic norms.
Leveraging Soft Power: Expand cultural and educational exchanges to foster mutual understanding and goodwill.

As Donald Trump embarks on his second term, his administration’s ability to navigate the complexities of democratic governance, human rights, and diplomacy will shape not only Africa’s trajectory but also America’s standing in the region.