Maize exports from Uganda, Tanzania and Ethiopia are expected to increase this year, according to a joint study.
The prediction has been pegged on the fact that there has been an increase in supply of maize from the October 2017 to January 2018 in Uganda and Ethiopia and May to August in Tanzania’s harvests.
“Most of the outflows would be attracted by relatively higher prices in Kenya stemming from low opening stocks because of the previous below average production, end of duty-free international maize imports and concomitant subsidy on flour prices by December 2017.” reads a section of the report.
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Regional maize exports to Kenya are expected to account for around 500,000 MT of the expected 970,000MT total imports into Kenya between July 2017 and June 2018, including formal international imports (Mexico, South Africa, Zambia, Ukraine), the study adds.
About 77 percent of the exports in the region were destined for Kenya where prices were still attractive despite falling seasonably because of ongoing domestic harvests.
However, better price incentives for regional maize exports to Kenya may affect exports to Rwanda, Burundi, and South Sudan through lower volumes and or lack of downward pressure on local prices.
Kenya’s exports to South Sudan stood at 8%, Tanzania was at 8% while Rwanda accounted for 5% of the total regional exports.
The report also notes that domestic maize prices in Uganda, Tanzania and Ethiopia, will mostly likely be higher than the respective last year and recent five-year average levels, due to the lingering effects of previous below average national harvests, supported by increased exports to Kenya.
The Cross Border Trade bulletin was jointly compiled by the East Africa Grain Council (EAGC), the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the National Bank of Rwanda (NBR) and the World Food Program (WFP).
