- Ethiopia and Somalia had been building momentum towards a potential conflict for some time.
- Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s stance on regaining sea access as a key matter has made people in East Africa and beyond uneasy.
- Ethiopia and Somalia have agreed to collaborate to address their disputes in a Turkey-brokered deal.
Ethiopia and Somalia Dispute
Ethiopia and Somalia had been building momentum towards a potential conflict for some time. Somalia, a country slowly emerging from decades of instability and extremism, is especially sensitive to catalysts of chaos. On the other hand, Ethiopia is already experiencing economic turbulence and major disputes between the central authority and the Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, and Somali ethnic groups.
The two countries’ longstanding history of conflict is rooted in socio-economic and political factors. Numerous parties and interests have been involved in the evolution of the conflict over the years, which has significantly influenced the stability of the Horn of Africa.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s determination to establish a naval facility along the Red Sea, despite his country being landlocked due to losing its littoral to Eritrea upon gaining independence in 1993, put the two nations on the brink of war.
Tensions in the Horn of Africa escalated following the signing of an agreement by the breakaway region of Somaliland with Addis Ababa to exchange maritime rights for prospective diplomatic recognition in January. The deal would see Ethiopia obtain a 12-mile (20-kilometre) naval base on the Gulf of Aden in exchange for Somaliland’s official recognition.
Ethiopia, a landlocked nation, would gain access to the sea. Somalia clearly considered Ethiopia’s expansionism a violation of its territorial integrity and sovereignty, a perspective the international community endorsed. Somalia appeared to be ready to go to war to prevent Ethiopia from acknowledging the breakaway territory of Somaliland and establishing a naval facility there.
Undoubtedly, a military confrontation between the two states would have further exacerbated the Horn of Africa’s already explosive situation, particularly in light of the ongoing civil conflict in Sudan. The region was on the brink of open conflict due to other hot-button issues, such as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the primary tributary of the Nile River and shifting alignments, which threatened to coalesce.
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Tensions in East Africa and Beyond
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s stance on regaining sea access as a key matter has made people in East Africa and beyond uneasy. It has also led to alliances with outside powers to back one side or the other, making an already tense situation even worse.
The memorandum between Ethiopia and Somaliland could also create discord between emerging blocs and their allies along the Red Sea. For instance, some perceive Prime Minister Ahmed’s claims as a threat to invade Eritrea or to occupy part of Somali territory.
Ethiopia’s stance has heightened tensions with Somalia and exacerbated other regional disputes about filling the GERD reservoir, particularly in the Nile Basin. Due to Egypt’s significant dependence on the Nile, which constitutes 98 per cent of the nation’s freshwater resources, Cairo sees the matter as a critical existential threat.
The Ethiopian-Somali dispute has notably strengthened ties between Egypt and Somalia, as evidenced by Cairo’s provision of arms to Mogadishu and its intention to deploy 10,000 troops to the region in the near future. Ethiopia perceives this action and the wider reorganization as an attempt by Egypt to address past grievances.
Before the onset of Sudan’s civil conflict in the spring of 2023, Egypt depended on its southern neighbor to assist in countering Ethiopia. Cairo has strategically positioned fighter jets in Sudan since 2020 to pressure Ethiopia to pursue a negotiated agreement. In this context, Somalia has positioned itself as a highly valuable partner for Egypt.
Turkey’s Role in Potential Ceasefire
Although an outbreak of war has occasionally appeared to be unavoidable, this does not imply that it was not preventable. Given their intractable domestic challenges, returning to open conflict would devastate both countries, and the broader region would likely not be spared. Instead, both sides needed to walk back from the brink—now made possible by a Turkey-brokered multilateral mediation deal to address the cross-cutting and deep-seated sources of tension.
Taking this into account, Ethiopia and Somalia have agreed to collaborate to address their disputes on a pact that would let Addis Ababa establish a military facility along the coast of the secessionist territory of Somaliland in return for an interest in its national airline.
On December 12, 2024, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan revealed that he had helped make a deal between Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. He said, “We have taken the first step toward a new beginning based on peace and cooperation between Somalia and Ethiopia.”
Since August, Turkish efforts to broker a deal to the impasse have been underway. The action aligned with Turkey’s efforts to expand its influence in Africa and enhance energy security by dispatching a research vessel to explore offshore oil fields owned by Somalia.
The “Ankara Declaration” agreement to de-escalate tensions followed the election of Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, a former speaker of parliament popularly known as Irro, in Somaliland last month. That result cast doubt over whether the semi-autonomous region would honor the previous deal agreed with Ethiopia in January.
Somalia and Ethiopia have agreed “to forgo and leave behind differences and contentious issues.” According to a joint declaration that paves the way for the start of technical negotiations to resolve disputes, with Turkey’s help, “no later than the end of February 2025. “
