- A staggering $8 trillion would be invested in installing renewables to achieve COP28 renewable targets.
- The report finds that COP28 renewable targets must continue growing enormously beyond the decade’s end.
- Without this, the pledge to triple COP28 renewable targets will ring increasingly hollow.
The investments channelled towards the development of renewables will need to grow fivefold if the Sub-Saharan African countries are to achieve COP28 Renewable Targets.
A new think tank Climate Analytics report shows that $8 trillion of investment is needed for new renewables and $4 trillion for grid and storage infrastructure to deliver the 2030 tripling goal agreed at COP28 – or combined, $2 trillion a year on average.
This is twice as fast as the current global average. 2023 global investment reached $1 trillion, around half of the annual investment needed between 2024 and 2030.
The insights show that using climate finance to mobilise $100 billion a year for the rollout in Sub-Saharan Africa – five times current investment levels – would ensure energy access for all and align the region with the global target.
“$2 trillion a year sounds like a cost, but it’s a choice. Over this decade, we’re set to invest over $6 trillion in fossil fuels – more than enough to close the tripling investment gap. Faced with this choice, I’d go with the safest, best value option – renewables,” says the report’s lead author and Climate Analytics expert Dr Neil Grant.
Renewable capacity in Sub-Saharan Africa
The report calculates how fast different regions need to act to triple global renewables based on current capacities and future needs.
Renewable capacity in Sub-Saharan Africa needs to scale rapidly by a factor of seven (double the global average) due to historic underinvestment and energy access needs. The OECD is forecast to double its renewables by 2030, but it needs to triple.
“The OECD needs to triple renewables but is currently way off target. Countries in the region claiming to be climate leaders need to walk the talk, not just by ramping up renewables at home, but by coming through for other regions which need finance to contribute to the tripling goal,” says Claire Fyson, co-author on the report and Head of Policy at Climate Analytics.
Asia needs to scale slightly faster than the OECD, almost quadrupling its renewable capacity by the decade’s end. Asia is the only region broadly on course for the tripling goal, driven mainly through policies in China and India.
However, these countries’ significant coal and gas pipelines risk stranded assets or slowing the transition. As renewables are set to grow strongly in the region, new fossil fuel plants are not needed and should be avoided.
“The renewables industry stands ready to deliver on the global tripling goal. But to get there in time, we need governments to take urgent action to turbocharge an already buoyant renewables market. Public finance is key, especially international support, to provide access to low-cost capital for emerging markets to join the renewables era, ensuring a clean, secure transition for all,” says Bruce Douglas, CEO of the Global Renewables Alliance, in reaction to the report.
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Achieving COP28 renewable targets
Tripling renewables by 2030 is not the end of the story. The report finds renewables must continue growing firmly beyond the decade’s end, scaling up five times by 2035 relative to 2022 to limit warming to 1.5°C.
As governments develop their 2035 targets for the next round of NDCs, they should consider how to follow through on the tripling ambition of COP28 renewable targets.
Over 2024-2030, the world is on track to invest $6.6 trillion in renewables and grids, leaving an investment shortfall of just over $5 trillion.
However, the world is also set to invest over $6 trillion in fossil fuels under current policies. Shifting this money to renewables and grids could cover the investment gap and put the power sector on track.
Some regions risk falling behind in the effort to triple renewables due to a chronic lack of investment and international support.
This is particularly the case in Sub-Saharan Africa, where annual investment in renewables and grid expansion was around $20 billion in 2023 – just a fifth of the ~$100 billion needed annually between 2024- 2030.
Without an urgent and rapid increase in finance to support renewables deployment in Africa, millions will miss out on the benefits of the renewables revolution – cleaner air, cheaper power, and increased energy security.
As governments negotiate a new climate finance goal for the post2025 period, much more must be done to mobilise investment in renewables and grid expansion in less wealthy countries.
Scaling up renewables will be critical
Without this, the pledge to triple COP28 Renewable targets will ring increasingly hollow. While scaling up renewables is key, emissions will only fall if they displace fossil fuels in the power system.
As well as investing in renewables, governments must take action to end public support and subsidies for fossil fuels. COP28 fired the starting gun on a global race to triple renewables by 2030. This report sets out a roadmap at the regional level to guide the way.
