- South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir met with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin in Moscow to discuss energy, trade, and security.
- South Sudan finds itself in a delicate dance, pressured by the watchful eyes of the US and its European allies.
- South Sudan holds its first presidential election in December 2024, the first national vote.
Last week, President Salva Kiir of South Sudan stepped into Moscow to meet his Russian counterpart, President Vladimir Putin. Their talks echoed the promise of an expanding relationship. However, an air of curiosity tinged the talks as the pair discussed energy, trade, and the ever-hot subject—security.
In a secluded meeting that held the weight of geopolitics, Kiir and Putin’s dialogue not only spanned the customary diplomatic matters but also ventured into the depths of political and security concerns within South Sudan.
South Sudan’s 2024 elections
Africa’s young nation, born from the ashes of its separation from now-warring Sudan in 2011, is on the brink of a historic milestone: its first presidential election, set for December 2024. South Sudan’s election in 2024 will be the first national vote ever held in the country where oil accounts for 95 per cent of its export revenue.
President Kiir, who has held senior leadership posts since the birth of South Sudan, is a man who carries with him a wealth of experience.
As if unveiling a well-guarded secret, a video emerged, showcasing the leaders’ public statements, made available to the world by the Kremlin. In a moment of revelation, Putin’s voice resonated with assurance, as he hinted at forging a potentially transformative alliance.
Putin spoke of the development of oil refineries within South Sudan, a venture that could bear the mark of increasing Russian influence in Africa, promising to strengthen the bonds between South Sudan and Russia.
While the stage appears set, the narrative is unfolding with a blend of curiosity and suspense. What hidden potential lies in this collaboration between South Sudan and Russia? How will the energy and trade dynamics evolve? And what secrets might be unlocked in the pursuit of oil development? Only time will reveal the answers, as these two leaders embark on a journey that could anchor Russia’s presence in the Horn.
“This is only the beginning. We have many good opportunities in a variety of fields, including energy,” Putin explained.
Watchful eyes of US and allies
Deep in South Sudan’s Unity state, an operation is taking shape as Russia multinational Safinat Group deftly sets up an oil refinery. But what secrets lie beneath this venture’s surface, and how does it fit into a global puzzle that seems to be ever-evolving?
On the stage of international diplomacy, South Sudan finds itself in a delicate dance, pressured by the watchful eyes of the US and its European allies. At the moment, the spotlight is on warring factions in South Sudan to swiftly implement a peace deal inked in 2018, a fragile accord designed to heal the wounds of a harrowing five-year civil war.
But that’s not all. Beyond peace at home, South Sudan needs something more – the lifting of arms embargos, a desire that, if realized, could alter the course of their future. And this is perhaps why Russia, a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council could help Juba.
Can Russia hold the key to South Sudan’s aspirations, providing the leverage needed to change their destiny? The intrigue deepens as these geopolitical threads intertwine, leaving us with questions that beckon for answers in a world of shifting collaborations and unforeseen alliances.
Following the meeting, President Kiir shared a profound insight: “The world dictates that no one can survive or succeed alone.” With these words, he set the stage for a conversation with Putin that would echo with the resonance of unity and friendship.
Against the backdrop of South Sudan’s youth as a nation, President Kiir acknowledged the crucial role of allies in shaping its destiny, and he extended a hand of cooperation to Putin, citing Russia as a steadfast friend.
Wagner Group in Sudan
As they delved into the complexities of peace and security in Africa and the sprawling landscape of international affairs, their dialogue was infused with a sense of urgency. The neighbouring conflict in Khartoum is sending a relentless tide of displaced people into South Sudan, stretching its already frail humanitarian and resource capacities to the limit. Mounting challenges of this humanitarian crisis loomed large, providing a somber backdrop to their discussions.
Russia-based private mercenary outfit, Wagner Group, started its operations in Sudan during the era of former President Omar al-Bashir, who was ultimately ousted from power in 2019 amidst widespread protests.
With mounting concern over the fragility of his regime, President al-Bashir visited Russia in 2017. During this visit, he held talks with President Putin, making a compelling case for Sudan to serve as Russia’s “gateway to Africa” in exchange for Russian support.
In the wake of this diplomatic exchange, Meroe Gold, a little-known mining enterprise under the ownership of the Russian company M Invest, started the deployment of Russian experts to Sudan, Africa’s third-largest gold producer.
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Russia’s pledge to South Sudan
For Kiir, this wasn’t the first encounter with Putin. President Kiir previously graced the inaugural Russia-Africa summit in 2019. Thus, last week’s meeting marked a moment of renewed connection with Putin making a fresh commitment. He pledged Russia’s support to South Sudan, not only in handling its domestic political challenges but also in ensuring its security. However, Putin’s past commitments with Africa paint a different picture.
In a historic meeting with African leaders in Sochi in 2019 Putin committed to double trade volumes between Russia and Africa within a five-year timeframe. However, four years after that commitment, the data at hand paints a contrasting picture. Trade relations between the African continent and Russia have declined.
Russia-Africa trade volume stands at approximately $16.9 billion. This represents a mere 5 per cent of the investment figures attributed to the European bloc. Moreover, Russia has not substantially allocated development capital towards Africa. In aggregate, Russian investments in Africa constitute less than one percent of the foreign direct investment flowing into the region.
Russia’s arms sales in Africa
A considerable portion of Russia’s exports to Africa, largely comprising cereals go to four nations: South Africa, Egypt, Morocco, and Algeria. However, in the realm of arms sales, the narrative takes a distinctive turn. By December 2022, Moscow nearly toppled Beijing as Africa’s primary arms supplier. Russia accounted for 40 percent of the overall arms market share.
The affordability of Russian equipment in comparison to its Western counterparts and its compatibility with legacy equipment originating from the Soviet era underpins this shift.
If the case for Russia’s involvement in West Africa and Sudan is anything to go by, South Sudan will offer observers rich fodder on geopolitical trends as Russia intensifies its influence across the continent.
