The latest projections by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) show that the African aviation industry will need more than goodwill to weather the turbulence created by global pandemic.
IATA projects that the full-year 2020 traffic is expected to plummet by 54 per cent which is more than 80 million passenger journeys compared to 2019. Previous estimates in April predicted that the fall would be 51 per cent but three months later, the future is looking even bleaker.
The drop could translate into job losses in aviation and related industries which could increase by more than half of the region’s 6.2 million aviation-related employment.
“Job losses in aviation and related industries could increase by up to 3.5 million. That is more than half of the region’s 6.2 million aviation-related employment and 400,000 more than the previous estimate,” notes IATA in its latest update issued this month.
As a result, the continent’s GDP supported by aviation could fall by up to US$35 billion, a notable increase from the previous estimated US$28 billion decline.
Muhammad Al Bakri, IATA’s Regional Vice President for Africa and the Middle East says that the pandemic has brought air connectivity across the continent to a virtual standstill. This has, in turn, devastated African economies with the situation worsening by the day.
Also Read: Africa’s GDP supported by aviation could fall to $35bn
“The economic consequences resulting from a disconnected continent are severe. Millions of jobs and livelihoods are at risk in family-run enterprises and large corporations along the entire travel and tourism value chain. For Africa’s economic recovery and future prosperity, it is essential to expedite the safe restart of the industry,” said Bakri.
To pacify the situation and minimize the impact on jobs and the broader African economy, IATA proposes that governments prioritise harmonizing the restart of air transport on the continent and step up efforts to support the industry.
IATA is advocating the harmonized adoption of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Council’s Aviation Recovery Task Force (CART) Take-off guidance. This is the global biosafety framework for the safe restart of aviation which is critical for the safe resumption of air transport.
In addition, countries must avoid conflicting measures, disruptions and inefficiencies by applying these recommendations consistently and uniformly, without imposing unnecessary border constraints such as quarantines, which deter passengers and suppress the demand for air travel.
Rwanda is the first country in Africa to fully comply with ICAO’s biosecurity recommendations.
On the other hand, governments can help revive the industry by financially supporting it. “Continued financial and regulatory support, particularly financial relief– that does not increase industry debt levels — through direct cash injections, credit or loans and deferrals or discounts on user charges are essential to support airlines over the restart and recovery period,” notes IATA.
Rwanda, Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso and Cabo Verde are the only African countries that have provided relief to the aviation industry so far which, according to IATA, has helped save thousands of jobs and will enable some airlines to restart and support the wider economies they serve.
Also read: Pandemic brings aviation and tourism industries to their knees
On opening borders and facilitating smooth travel, the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) notes that almost all African countries have differing degrees of suspending international flights, introduced 14-day quarantine for entrants into the country and closing land or maritime borders.
While Africa could fare much better trading within itself, ECA notes that intra-African exports started to decline a month after Africa’s exports to the rest of the world declined.
In just one month from March 2020, the decline grew from 1 per cent to 17 per cent in April 2020. “The impact of the significant drop in intra–African exports was felt in April 2020, following the enforcement of African lockdowns, travel bans and Covid-19 border regulations in March 2020,” notes ECA.
For Africa, the silver lining is in the fact that intra–African exports have been more resilient to the twin Covid-19 and commodity price shock, than Africa’s exports to the rest of the world have been, according to ECA.
As such, there is an urgent importance of further developing competitive and diversified intra-African value chains.
While the pandemic has been a global threat, cross-border trade disruptions, including such factors as a slowdown in demand, declining commodity prices, supply chain blockages, increased freight costs and export bans, are likely to have played a role in Africa’s slowdown in trade.
With this knowledge, it is advisable that Africa becomes more accessible to itself than it has been for decades. Bringing down the barriers of travel will play a key role in ensuring that global shocks do not hit the continent as much.
Opening the skies will be a good place to start.
