- President Ruto’s stance on Kenya-US relations can impact the country’s Look East policy.
- President William Ruto has intensified interaction with the United States since becoming Kenya’s fifth president a year ago, indicating a probable shift from the East to the West.
- The United States remains a vital market for Kenyan exports, particularly in horticulture, textiles, and tourism.
The history of Kenya’s relations with the East
Nairobi, the capital city of Kenya, is filled with evidence of Chinese investment. Beijing has established itself as Kenya’s most significant bilateral lender, with key roads financed and constructed by Chinese investors.
Daniel Arap Moi, Mwai Kibaki, and Uhuru Kenyatta, the three former presidents of Kenya, embraced a “Look East” policy, which was responsible for attracting Chinese capital to a series of significant infrastructure projects, including ports, highways, and airports. However, it is since 2002 that China has invested the most significant funds in Kenya’s infrastructure during the Kibaki and Kenyatta administrations.
Moreover, when Uhuru Kenyatta became president in 2013, he strengthened ties with China and helped to secure $5 billion for the Mombasa-Nairobi Standard Gauge Railway project. The railway, the costliest infrastructure project undertaken by Kenya since its independence, connects the coastal city of Mombasa to the capital city of Nairobi, with a further link to Naivasha in the central Rift Valley.
President William Ruto intensifies Kenya-US relations
Interestingly, President William Ruto has intensified interaction with the United States since becoming Kenya’s fifth president a year ago, indicating a probable shift from the East to the West.
President Ruto’s administration has met with high-ranking US officials on several occasions. Ruto has not met many Chinese officials, except for China’s ambassador to Kenya and Liu Yuxi, Beijing’s special representative for African affairs, who was in Kenya in September for the president’s inauguration.
Ruto has made two trips to the United States and conferred with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, French President Emmanuel Macron, and numerous other Western leaders. Kenya has welcomed high-ranking American officials, including Trade Representative Katherine Tai, United Nations Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield, and First Lady Jill Biden. Kenya is also negotiating a trade agreement with the United States, which could serve as a template for similar agreements with other African nations.
President Ruto’s stance on Kenya-US relations and the implications
President William Ruto’s election in August 2022 introduced an element of uncertainty in Kenya’s foreign policy landscape. While it is challenging to predict the exact trajectory, his past statements suggest a more pragmatic and balanced approach to international relations. While emphasizing the importance of regional integration and South-South cooperation, President Ruto has also acknowledged the significance of Kenya’s longstanding relationship with the United States. This nuanced stance implies that the government might not abandon the Look East Policy entirely but rather recalibrate to strike a more balanced approach between the East and the West.
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Economic considerations in the Kenya-US relations
Economic gains have remained a critical aspect of Kenya’s Look East policy. China has emerged as a key trading partner and a major investor in Kenya’s infrastructure megaprojects, such as the Standard Gauge Railway and Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) corridor.
Although these projects can potentially transform Kenya’s economy and enhance its regional connectivity, the United States remains a vital market for Kenyan exports, particularly in horticulture, textiles, and tourism. Thus, President William Ruto’s challenge lies in maintaining and expanding economic ties with the US and Eastern partners while avoiding overreliance on either side.
Geopolitical factors
Kenya’s geopolitical position in East Africa adds another layer of complexity to its foreign policy choices. The country serves as a regional trade hub, hosts various international organizations, and plays a crucial role in peacekeeping efforts. The United States has historically supported Kenya in these endeavours, providing military assistance, training, and intelligence cooperation.
However, recent geopolitical developments, including increasing competition between the US and China for influence in Africa, have complicated the scenario. President Ruto’s administration must navigate this geopolitical landscape carefully, safeguarding Kenya’s interests while seeking opportunities for multilateral cooperation.
Counterterrorism and security cooperation
Peace and security greatly influence a nation’s economic growth and prosperity. Security cooperation has been a cornerstone of the Kenya-US relations. The US has provided extensive support to Kenya’s counterterrorism efforts, intelligence sharing, and capacity building of security forces. Kenya has also benefited from military equipment and training programs, particularly in the fight against extremist groups such as Al-Shabaab. Cooperation in this area has been crucial for Kenya’s national security and regional stability.
President William Ruto’s approach to security and counterterrorism cooperation with the US will likely continue, given the threats faced by Kenya, especially from the Al-Shabaab militia. The US remains committed to supporting Kenya’s efforts in combating terrorism and maintaining regional stability.
However, the shifting dynamics in international relations may require President Ruto’s administration to balance security cooperation with the US while engaging with Eastern partners interested in contributing to Africa’s security architecture.
Diplomatic relations and multilateral engagement
The Look East policy has influenced Kenya’s diplomatic relations and multilateral engagement. While maintaining strong ties with Western partners, Kenya has expanded its diplomatic presence and engagement with Asian countries, particularly China. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched by China, has opened avenues for cooperation between Kenya and other Asian nations. Kenya has actively sought investments, technology transfers, and market access by participating in BRI projects, aligning with its development goals.
President Ruto’s relations with the US are likely to have implications for Kenya’s diplomatic engagements. The United States has been a key player in global governance and multilateral institutions. Kenya’s balancing act between the East and the West will require President William Ruto to carefully navigate diplomatic relations, ensuring that Kenya’s interests are represented in international forums while seeking opportunities for collaboration across regions.
Public perception and domestic politics
Public perception and domestic politics also play a significant role in shaping foreign policy. Kenyan citizens have diverse views regarding their country’s engagement with global powers. While some appreciate the economic opportunities offered by Eastern partners, others raise concerns about the potential implications for sovereignty and debt sustainability. The United States has traditionally enjoyed a positive image among a section of Kenyans, particularly those who value its democratic values, human rights advocacy, and economic partnerships.
President Ruto’s ability to balance public sentiment and domestic political considerations will be crucial in shaping Kenya’s foreign policy direction. He must address concerns regarding debt sustainability, transparency, and accountability concerning Eastern investments. At the same time, he must ensure that the benefits of engagement with the United States are effectively communicated to the public, highlighting the potential for economic growth, job creation, and technological advancements.
Conclusion
President Ruto’s stance on Kenya-US relations can impact the country’s Look East policy. While the Look East policy has brought significant economic benefits through increased trade, investment, and infrastructure development with Eastern partners, the United States remains an essential ally regarding security cooperation, market access, and diplomatic engagements. President Ruto’s pragmatic approach and emphasis on a balanced foreign policy suggest that Kenya’s Look East policy will not be abandoned entirely but recalibrated to strike a delicate balance between the East and the West.
Kenya’s future foreign policy trajectory will depend on President Ruto’s ability to navigate the complex geopolitical landscape, maintain economic diversification, enhance security cooperation, and address domestic concerns. By leveraging the strengths of both the United States and Eastern partners, Kenya can maximize its economic potential, strengthen its regional influence, and ensure sustainable development for its citizens.
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