- South Africa says Russian President Vladimir Putin will skip planned BRICS summit in Johannesburg in August.
- Since he was charged with war crimes by the ICC in March for kidnapping children from Ukraine, Putin has avoided travelling.
- On July 15, Putin talked with Ramaphosa on BRICS and the status of the Black Sea grain deal.
South Africa says Russian President Vladimir Putin will skip planned BRICS summit in Johannesburg next month because of his ICC arrest warrant. South Africa, which was facing a major diplomatic challenge on whether to arrest Putin, says it has requested the Russian President to stay away from the summit.
Putin was charged with war crimes by the ICC in March for the kidnapping of children from Ukraine. Since then, Putin has been avoiding travelling to all nations that are party to the court’s treaty.
Following a “mutual agreement,” the office of South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said on Wednesday that Putin will not be attending the BRICS meeting. As a signatory to the Rome Statute, which created the ICC, South Africa would have been required to place him under arrest.
The August summit will see leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — a bloc of developing economies known as BRICS, meet in Johanesburg. All the leaders of the other four countries, including China’s Xi Jinping, will attend the summit, Ramaphosa’s office said.
Earlier this week, President Ramaphosa noted that arresting Putin would potentially trigger a war between his country and Russia.
“South Africa has obvious problems with executing a request to arrest and surrender President Putin,” Ramaphosa noted in a court affidavit relating to a suit filed by the opposition party. “Russia has made it clear that arresting its sitting president would be a declaration of war,” Ramaphosa added.
Russia’s Lavrov to represent Putin
In the past seven days, there have been intense talks regarding Putin’s attendance of the BRICS summit. President Ramaphosa’s office says that Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov will be representing Putin in the meeting.
On July 15, Putin held a phone call with Ramaphosa where they discussed among others the status of the Black Sea grain deal, which is set to expire on Monday, sending grain prices up in Africa and across the world.
Putin reiterated his concerns about the unfulfilled commitments to remove obstacles to Russian food and fertiliser exports. This has been a contentious issue between Russia and Ukraine, and the grain deal was originally struck a year ago to allow Ukraine to export grain from its Black Sea ports amid the war.
On Monday Russia said it is exiting the Black Sea Grain deal, which assured passage of ships carrying grain from Ukraine. The move will trigger far-reaching global consequences with wheat prices already surging following the action from the Kremlin.
In the phone call, the two leaders also exchanged views on the upcoming BRICS summit. Overall, their engagement sheds light on the delicate balance of interests and concerns between Russia and South Africa. It also underscores the importance of finding diplomatic solutions on complex issues.
The outcomes of the discussions on the grain deal and the BRICS summit will likely have significant ramifications for both countries and their relationships with the broader international community.
In mid June Putin and his Ukraine counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskiy rejected the African peace initiative. The deal backed by Ramaphosa and other African leaders seeks finding a lasting resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war.
Why is grain initiative critical for Africa
The grain initiative is of utmost importance for Africa due to its significant impact on the continent’s food security. Even before Russia-Ukraine war broke out, Africa imported huge stocks of agricultural supplies, particularly wheat from Ukraine. Wheat from Ukraine accounted for 12 percent of the continent’s imports in the 2021-22 season.
The disruption in Ukrainian wheat exports caused by the war has left African countries facing critical food shortages. As a result, millions of people are at risk of hunger, and many are reliant on food aid. The high cost of food caused by the shortages could force organizations such as the World Food Programme to scale down their operations in crisis hotspots. Such a move will exacerbate food crisis and impacting vulnerable populations in countries like Somalia and Ethiopia.
In economically better-performing African countries, the wheat shortages will lead to food price increases. A rise in costs will push more people into poverty and adding strain to already challenging economic conditions.
Prices of wheat rising globally
In fragile states, the situation could potentially lead to social unrest as people become desperate. Such unrest may pose a threat to governments’ stability, leading to increased state repression to control dissent.
Already, global markets are feeling the immediate shocks of looming wheat shortages. The prices of wheat, maize, and soybean are rising, affecting consumers and farmers in Africa. The grain initiative plays a critical role in ensuring that cereals, fertilizers, and ammonia flows into Africa.
Cuts in fertilizer and ammonia exports have a direct impact on Africa, where agricultural activities are vital for sustenance and economic growth. Shortages of these crucial inputs could lead to price increases, resulting in low yields for farmers and potential challenges in sustaining their livelihoods.
By securing the grain initiative, Africa aims to address the pressing food crisis, stabilize commodity prices, and ensure a stable food supply chain for its population. The success of this initiative is not only vital for Ukraine and the affected regions but also crucial for Africa’s food security. It offers a chance for cooperation and support between nations, mitigating the impact of the war on global food supplies.
What Black Sea grain deal has achieved
Achievements under the Black Sea grain deal have been significant in stabilizing global food prices. The agreement saw the export of 32.9 million tonnes of food primarily corn and wheat to 45 countries worldwide.
Notably, 57 per cent of these exports went to developing countries, with 20 per cent ending in poor nations.
Reconnecting one of the world’s largest grain exporters back to global markets has had a tangible impact on food prices. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, global food prices have experienced an 11.6 per cent drop since July 2022. The ease in prices was partly attributable to the availability of grain from the Black Sea region.
The UN World Food Programme (WFP) has played a crucial role in delivering food aid under the agreement. The WFP has distributed over 725,000 tonnes of wheat to needy people in Afghanistan, the Horn of Africa, and Yemen.
Before the war, WFP relied on Ukrainian grain supplies for more than half of its needs. As of July, the initiative was accounting for 80 per cent of WFP’s grain purchases, underscoring its significance in meeting urgent food needs.
People suffering from hunger
The collapse of the deal would have dire consequences, particularly for Eastern Africa. Dominique Ferretti, the WFP senior emergency officer in the region, warns that the impact would be severe. Millions of people are suffering from hunger across the Horn of Africa, requiring aid.
The last ship left Ukraine under the agreement on July 16. Food exports through the initiative have been decreasing in recent months. Delays in inspections by Ukrainian, Russian, Turkish, and UN officials collectively, are also driving this decline. Implementation of the deal requires agreement among all parties involved in the operation, the UN notes.
Continued implementation of the agreement is crucial to ensuring the ongoing availability of food globally. The initiative will also help in mitigating the impact of the war in Ukraine on global food supplies.
