- The Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) says food production across Africa is stubbornly low.
- Households across Sub-Saharan Africa spend roughly 23% of their total income on food.
- The Collapse of the Black Sea Initiative, the bombing of an ammonia pipeline, and a key dam in Ukraine spell doom for Africa’s food production systems.
Reducing hunger and increasing food production in a persistently low-income environment will be one of Africa’s biggest problems in the next ten years, a new report by FAO says.
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023-2032 report attributes the challenge to increasingly volatile weather patterns due to climate change. At the moment, food production in many countries across Africa is stubbornly low.
During the period under focus, the report predicts that imports into the region will surge. And this will negatively impact the economic welfare of the continent’s 1.1 billion people.
Households across SSA spend roughly 23 per cent of total income on food. Africa’s continued vulnerability to high food prices worsened by the pandemic and ongoing conflicts is straining food production. Equally, an increasing number of people cannot afford food, a scenario that is worsening food security.
Undernourishment rising in Africa
A huge and diversified region, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) accounts for 19 per cent of the world’s agricultural land. Many economies in Africa depend strongly on agriculture, including fisheries and forestry. On average, agriculture accounted for 15 per cent of Africa’s economic output between 2020 and 2022.
According to FAO, post-pandemic recovery in GDP growth did not improve Africa’s food security. As a result, this is driving up undernourishment now averaging 23.2 per cent. The number of undernourished people increased by 12 million in 2021, a slower rate than in 2020.
At the moment, Africa’s population is the youngest. The continent’s rate of population growth is the fastest yet Africa has the slowest rate of urbanisation. By 2032, SSA’s 1.45 billion population will likely account for 17 per cent of the world’s population.
Unfortunately, this rising population is facing another problem: undernourishment. Although undernourishment has been rising since 2018, the pandemic triggered a sharp uptick that will be hard to eliminate. A combination of surging inflation, weaker economic growth, and high prices in 2022 likely worsened the situation, with relief expected only when food prices will normalize.
Damage to key ammonia pipeline
Latest developments in Russia-Ukraine war are threatening to further diminish Africa’s food production plans. For instance, recent damage to a major ammonia pipeline that runs between Russia and Ukraine means that difficulties in accessing fertilizer will further derail Africa’s food production systems.
Rising geopolitical tensions have seen the end of Black Sea Grain Initiative set up in July 2022 to bridge the cereal supply gaps globally. The Black Sea Grain Initiative was allowing the export of Ukrainian grains through the Black Sea. It has, however, collapsed following the withdrawal of Moscow from the agreement. Up to July 24th, the agreement was allowing ships to carry fertilizer and agricultural products from three Ukrainian ports. It let ships sail through strictly mapped routes, to avoid mines and Russian warships to Turkey’s Bosporus strait.
Additionally, the collapse of Ukraine’s Nova Kakhovka dam is negatively affecting irrigation systems, further damaging prospects of food production in the eastern European country. The dam serves over 500,000 hectares of farmland in Ukraine. With its destruction during the war, the farmlands are flooding.
“Although the flooded agricultural area is relatively small, disconnection of the irrigation canals upstream has led to water scarcity for summer and winter crops, with implications for Ukraine’s agricultural exports,” FAO says.
Long-term food security in Africa
As a result, global cereal production will be affected and that will affect food security in Africa. So far; “the forecast for wheat production was raised to 783.3 million tonnes this month based on improved prospects in many countries” reads the report.
However, how long will this be sustained and what does it mean for the long-term food security for Africa?
The maize production forecast for 2023 remains nearly unchanged at 1,211.3 tonnes, but there is hope that there will be increased production of maize. There is also a silver lining in the forecast for rice production for the 2023/24 period.
However, that is where the good news ends. When you look at the 2023/24 soybean production forecast the picture is grim. Production has been down since June 2023 falling to 403 million tonnes, caused by lower prices in the United States that in turn offset prices in Brazil, India, and parts of West Africa.
More bad news for the month of June was that of wheat markets; here you had such ups and downs with prices reaching a near-2-year low in late May. However, while this spells lower profits for suppliers, on the flip side of things it actually means there was and will be increased wheat supply which is why the prices are going down.
Rising fertilizer costs
According to Reuters, Russia attacked Ukraine’s main inland port across the Danube River from Romania on Wednesday, Aug 2, sending global food prices higher. Moscow is increasingly ramping up its use of force to prevent Ukraine from exporting grain. The latest attacks destroyed buildings in the port of Izmail, immediately stopping ships in their tracks.
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023-2032 warns that rising fertilizer costs will lead to higher food prices. The report estimates that, for every percentage increase in fertilizer prices, agricultural commodity prices will rise by 0.2 per cent.
“The impact is more significant for crops that depend directly on fertilizers than for livestock products, except for poultry and pork, which heavily rely on compound feed,” FAO warns.
Granted, while the analysis focuses on the link between fertilizers and agricultural commodities, other moving parts like fluctuations in energy, seed, labor, and machinery prices will most certainly also affect food prices.
The food security report is backed by the IMF’s World Economic Outlook for the same period which shows a drop in the average global economic growth for the coming decade. From the look of things, both reports show a grim decade up ahead, but it is not all bad.
Fast growing demand for meat
For example, it is expected that Africa and other low- and middle-income countries will increase livestock production to meet the global fast-growing demand for meat. However, this growth goes hand in hand with the demand for animal feed which will in turn force an increase in the production of animal feeds.
To ensure food security, the outlook report emphasizes on the importance of investments in technology and infrastructure. It also calls for training to support the projected 1.1 percent annual growth in global agricultural production.
“Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and adapting to climate change are also crucial efforts addressed in the report,” the report sums up.
Africa is highly dependent on Russia and Ukraine for the supply of grains such as wheat and rice.
According to FAO, Africa’s greatest opportunity to secure food security for her growing population rests in plugging food production gaps. The agency is also urging improving market access and reducing logistics costs in regional food trade.
Also Read: US-Russia power plays in Africa food crisis
