- Africa’s urban population is poised to hit almost one billion in 2035.
- This population explosion poses both threats and opportunities.
- Population growth will grow more dynamic and wealthier consumer markets.
The ongoing population explosion in Africa poses both opportunities for economic growth and threats that could dampen the hopes for billions of people. According to the latest surveys, the African continent is expected to record one of the fastest rates of population growth worldwide.
For instance, insights from the Economist Intelligence Unit’s African Cities 2035 report states, “African cities will record rapid urbanization in the next decade, creating a mixed bag of socio-economic opportunities and challenges.”
“Africa has and will continue to have the fastest rate of urbanization of the world’s major regions through 2035. Africa’s urban population will rise from about 650 million in 2023 to almost one billion in 2035,” reads the report in part.
According to charity Educate!, By 2035, the African continent looks set to contribute more young people to the global workforce than the rest of the world combined. Educate! is an organization that has been skilling the youth, particularly women and girls across Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda, equipping them with key skills to start business and also to get a job.
A pointer to the looming threats that could potentially implode, the report says the current population explosion has left big cities in Africa “battling demand for urban housing.” The threat of lack of housing in places like South Africa and Egypt is “triggering a burst of informal settlements.”
UN-HABITAT estimates that over half of Africa’s urban population lives in slums. This number is projected to increase to 1.3 billion people by 2050 from the current 400 million, warns the report. Overall, Africa population explosion will cause overcrowding in the cities and with it, mushrooming of informal settlements.
In turn, Africa will face even worse unemployment crisis, poor public services, and overstretched demand on utility services to mention but a few of the major challenges that Africa will have to grapple with in the next decade, the EIU report cautions.
There will be “an addition of megacities with a population of more than 10 million residents, while 17 more cities will have a population of more than five million…and a further 100 (cities) will have populations in excess of one million inhabitants.”
“The emergence of new urban heavyweights and megacities, the rapid expansion of city clusters and the rising importance of megalopolises will be a major feature of Africa’s demographic and economic future,” said Pat Thacker, the report’s lead author.
On the other hand, “rapid urbanization across Africa will help to create more dynamic and wealthier consumer markets, better connected and more sophisticated commercial and distribution hubs, and larger bases for industrial production and import-export operations,” the report predicts.
As a result, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) regional leaders who met at the recent summit in Harare, Zimbabwe, agreed that there is need for urgent affirmative action, “if the continent is to derive any dividend from the rapid urbanization.”
“African governments need to firstly use evidence from population projections to anticipate this demand in housing, schools, waste disposal, water and transport,” advises President of the Union for African Population Studies, Nyovani Madise, who is a member of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population.
“African governments should invest in rural development programmes so that young people are able to find economic activities in their rural homes so that there is less migration into cities in search of livelihoods,” he further advised.
The population explosion will also worsen climate change-related issues which the report points as a major concern for Africa’s largest cities. The expert also cites that Africa’s large cities are in low-lying coastal areas that exposes them to the dangers of rising sea levels.
“These climate risks will weigh heavily on the future dynamism and prosperity of African cities, especially as national preparedness and climate resilience are weak,” he warns.
The President of the Union for African Population Studies is of the view that what makes things worse for Africa is the fact it has inadequate planning for these realities and as a result, the continent will suffer adverse consequences as mentioned.
“African governments should plan for climate mitigation measures as their populations grow because population growth, coupled with growth of economies, especially through industrialization, will lead to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions in Africa,” he reasoned.
“Urban development is often accompanied by industrialization, which requires high energy, water, and good transport systems. Cities must have adequate urban policies to ensure that energy expansion is compatible with national and global targets for climate change,” Madise advises.
So what are African policy makers to do to avert this dooms day scenario? The Executive Secretary of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), Claver Gatete, says “it is not simply a question of convenience. It is a matter of absolute necessity.”
“We have no choice but to look inward for homegrown solutions, including domestic resource mobilization and innovative financing to sustain our development,” said the executive in the report.
However, that been said, the economist says it is not all doom and gloom for Africa, but rather, “there are small pockets of economic optimism where skilled and better educated workers will emerge, raising hope that the continent’s urbanization is not all gloom.”
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Africa population explosion will change world order
According to an International Monetary Fund (IMF) report titled ‘A demographic transformation in Africa has the potential to alter the world order’ “just eight countries will account for more than half of the increase in global population over the next three decades, and five of those countries are in Africa.”
The report points out that up until April of this year China was the world’s most populous country, but then India overtook it. However, “it is Africa’s booming population that commands attention, with its demographic transformation set to reshape the continent and the world beyond.”
According to the IMF, Africa’s population was estimated to be around 140 million in 1900 and it accounted for 9 percent of the world’s population at that time. However, “fueled by a combination of falling mortality and some of the highest birth rates in the world, Africa’s total population has increased tenfold and now stands at over 1.4 billion.”
Also, “the United Nations projects that by 2050, Africa’s population will reach close to 2.5 billion. Such a figure would mean that more than 25 per cent of the world’s population will be African.”
However, the UN is confident that Africa’s population growth will slow thereafter, but Africa will remain by far the largest source of growth globally: its share of the world’s population is set to reach close to 40 percent by the end of the century; that is to say, almost half of the world will be Africans.
