The world is on the cusp of a new geopolitical order, embracing multipolarity and swiftly effacing the long-standing unipolar world that has for decades on end, placed the U.S on a pedestal as the sole dominant superpower. In the recent past this hegemonic position has been challenged by emerging global powers, led by China, Russia, Germany, U.K, South Korea, France, Japan, UAE, and several others. These countries have grown in power, asserting an independent and to some degree collective influential role, in global economic affairs and security development, thereby ushering in a new multipolar world order.
The fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989 when almost all of the communist governments of the Eastern bloc were overthrown, heralded the formal dissolution of the USSR in 1991.This marked the end of the Cold War that began shortly after World War II in 1945. This was a period of geopolitical tension between the U.S and the Soviet Union and their respective allies, in the Western bloc and the Eastern bloc respectively. The collapse of the Soviet Union rendered the U.S as the world’s sole hegemonic superpower. A status the U.S has enjoyed a little over three decades but one which is currently in its twilight years.
The current ongoing Russian-Ukraine conflict, seems to demonstrate a reminiscent proxy war for the US as it continues to support Ukraine, keeping at bay its arch nemesis.
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In this emerging multipolar world where does Africa stand?
Most of these rising powers have been eager to promote intercourse with the continent, in the “New Scramble for Africa” reminiscent of the 1884/85 scramble and partitioning of Africa. Nonetheless, this time round devoid of colonial chains, Africa has a seat at the table and her voice matters. How then can Africa position herself in this multipolar global order?
The recent US-Africa Summit held in Washington DC in December 2022, was the ground where America sought to reboot ties with African nations, committing $55B in economic, security and health investments. The Summit was preceded by two diplomatic visits to the continent by the U.S Secretary of State Antony Blinken, as well as a visit by the US ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield and USAID Chief Samantha Power.
Conversely, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has also made diplomatic trips to the continent and preparations remain underway for the second Russia-Africa Summit to be held in St. Petersburg in 2023, with the first having been held in Sochi in 2019. It’s designed to give a new impetus to trade, investments, scientific and technological knowledge sharing, and humanitarian cooperation, expanding the range of Russian-African interaction.
Similarly, Sino-African relations remain strong and through the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), China continues to deepen its footprint on the continent. In the same breath, Japan also has its Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD) to promote relations with Africa. Its 8th edition was held in August in Tunisia, making the second time that the conference has been held in Africa since inception in 1993. In 2021, France also initiated its New Africa-France Summit and the same year marked the third edition of the Africa-Turkey Partnership Summit. The India–Africa Forum Summit (IAFS) has not been held since its third edition in 2015 which was a platform to steer the African-Indian relations.
With Africa’s rise in the new multipolar global order, the international frenzy to strengthen multi-polar, international security, food and energy security, healthcare and humanitarian cooperation, education, science and culture are all arena’s that were once forgotten, be it not for a self-interest of non-African nations to seek their own influence and perhaps their own dominance in areas that are self-serving.
How Can Africa Take its Rightful Position in a Multipolar World?
If Africa plays her cards right, she is bound to thrive in the imminent multipolar global order. Africa’s priority is to attain development which still remains below par, with large swathes of the population living in abject poverty without access to basic amenities and services, such as access to clean water, power, internet connectivity, infrastructure development among a plethora of existential challenges.
In tandem this will aid African nations in the realization of their respective national development goals. The broad spectrum of their respective aid to the continent from infrastructural development, technology transfer, power generation expansion, internet connectivity and agricultural productivity, and a plethora of other sectors, is bound to catapult Africa from its status as the world’s poorest continent.
Africa’s Agenda 2063 on the “Africa we want” set by the African Union, advocates under its first aspiration, a Prosperous Africa based on inclusive growth and sustainable development and A Strong, United, Resilient and Influential Global Player and Partner’ under aspiration 7.For the fruition of both aspirations, Africa needs to forge transformative partnerships aligned to its national development goals.
Furthermore, Africa should take advantage of the “dash for gas” that has seen Europe looking to the continent as an alternative supplier of gas, as it seeks to wean itself off Russian gas. This spells economic prosperity and development for oil and gas producing countries on the continent. Moreover, to position itself in a multipolar world, Africa should additionally leverage on its status as a green energy hub. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Africa has the potential to play a leading role, as the world’s energy systems transition to a net zero future. The continent’s geographic diversity holds huge potential for solar and wind power, and its soils are home to many of the minerals and rare earths needed for clean energy technologies.
The race for metals and rare earth metals needed for the green transition is gaining momentum and again these world powers are competing for Africa’s resources. For instance, Russia is mining bauxite and refining it to aluminium in Guinea, which is essential for aircraft and spacecraft components, as well as power lines and many other applications. It’s also expanding lithium investments on the continent. Lithium is integral for the shift to e-mobility or electric vehicles. Zimbabwe and DRC are among the countries with the largest lithium reserves. Revenues garnered from exporting these natural resources, not only aids Africa’s development agenda but also can help service the massive debts many nations are grappling with.
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What does Africa Stand to Gain from Partnering with Emerging Powers?
Africa and Russia Relations
In the wake of this multipolar world order, Africa’s partnership with Russia is of critical importance especially in the fight against violent extremist terror groups or insurgent groups. From Somalia, Burkina Faso, Mozambique, Mali, Niger, DRC, Libya among many other countries are rife with terrorists’ attacks.
“Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State group have made the Sahel region of West Africa and the Gulf of Guinea nations a priority for their strategy of expansion.” French President Emmanuel Macron noted earlier in February, as he announced the withdrawal of French troops from Mali.
Russia has signed military agreements with more than 20 African countries, with cooperation ranging from counterterrorism and peacekeeping to weapons sales since 2015. African countries such as Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad and Mauritania have all sought for help from Moscow to aid in combating terrorist groups such as the Islamic State (ISIS), Ansaroul Islam, and Boko Haram. In Mali, Russia has deployed Russian trainers on the ground, to enhance the security forces’ operational capacity.
Russia sent its own forces to help quell rebel militia groups. By the same token, it sold nuclear plants and other related technologies, to developing countries such as Ethiopia, Egypt, Zambia and Nigeria. In Bangui, Central African Republic, a statue of Russia paramilitary personnel was erected in honour of defeating an armed rebellion in late 2020.
According to the 2020 annual report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI); arms exports to Africa accounted for 18 percent of all Russian exports between 2016 and 2020. Currently, Russia is Africa’s largest arms supplier, accounting for around 39 percent of the continent’s defense imports between 2009 and 2018. Russian arms are sophisticated, reliable, and often less expensive than those supplied by Western countries.
Africa and China Relations
Amid the multipolar global order, the bond between Africa and China run deep. The last two decades have seen strengthened Sino-African ties. Chinese loans from government and state-owned banks have enabled the construction of major infrastructure projects across the region, including railways, hydroelectric plants, highways, ports, airports and government buildings. In the same breath, the ambitious China’s infrastructure project, dubbed as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is remarkable progress.
As Africa’s largest trading partner, China-African trade exceeded $200 billion annually over the past decade. There are an estimated 10,000 Chinese enterprises in Africa, generating more than $180 billion a year in revenues, and are projected to reach $250 billion a year by 2025.The establishment of the Forum on China-Africa Co-operation (FOCAC) in 2000, further increased commercial opportunities for the continent.
The China-Africa Cooperation Vision 2035, the Dakar Action Plan (2022-2024); the Sino-African Declaration on Climate Change and the Declaration of the Eighth Ministerial Conference of FOCAC, saw China’s commitment to undertake several programmes to bolster economic and social cooperation. The first programme is the medical and health programme, where China announced plans to undertake ten medical and health projects for African countries, sending 1500 medical personnel and public health experts to Africa. Through the poverty reduction and agricultural development programme, the country will be undertaking ten poverty reduction projects for Africa, and sending 500 agricultural experts to the continent.
The trade promotion programme could not be more ambitious, with China set to provide $10 billion of trade financing to support African exports, with an aim to additionally reach $300 billion in total imports from Africa in the next three years. Moreover, China will be undertaking ten connectivity projects for Africa vowed to give continued support to the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
The capacity building programme will oversee projects that include the building or upgrading of 10 schools in Africa, and invite 10,000 high-level Africans to training programmes to promote vocational training. The investment promotion programme through its share of the IMFs allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), is another key programme under which China promised to channel to African countries $10B. Under the Peace and Security programme, China will undertake ten peace and security projects for Africa by fighting terrorism, conducting peace-keeping exercises such as the one in the Horn, supporting African countries in maintaining regional security and continue to deliver military assistance to the AU.
China intends to undertake ten industrialization and employment promotion projects for Africa, support the development of African SMEs on a priority basis, and provide credit facilities of $10B to African financial institutions. Furthermore, China has also been keen to establish Special Economic Zones (SEZ) in various East African countries such as Ethiopia, Rwanda and Tanzania; to spur industrialization and economic growth.
On technology, China announced the digital innovation programme, to aid in Africa’s realization of the fourth industrial revolution. Its promise to undertake 10 digital economy projects for Africa, will see the set-up of satellite remote-sensing, and support the development of joint laboratories, partner institutes, and scientific and technological innovation cooperation bases. Similarly, the Eastern Asian country, vowed to launch online shopping festivals promoting African products to market 100 African stores and 1,000 African products on e-commerce platforms. By the same token, China’s tech giants Huawei, ZTE and Cloudwalk; reported to be investing $8.43B as part of its Digital Silk Road Initiative.
In cognizance of the continent’s susceptibility to global warming, China launched the green development programme, whereby it will undertake 10 green development, environmental protection and climate action projects for Africa, support the development of the “Great Green Wall”, and build centres of excellence on low-carbon development and climate change adaptation in Africa.
Africa and the U.S
Africa-US relations have been rocky with many African nations opting to look east as opposed to the traditional Western allies. Most recently, the U.S has been trying hard to amend relations with countries on the continent, somewhat threatened by the growing influence of China, Russia and other world powers in the new multipolar global order.
The U.S has sought to counter the massive Chinese influence on the continent. This was highlighted during the G-7 Summit, where the U.S President Joe Biden launched his Build Back Better World or B3W plan, as an alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The B3W is part of a joint effort among the G-7 partners, to deliver high-quality and sustainable infrastructure. The goal of the initiative is to create ‘a values-driven, high standard and transparent infrastructure partnership,’ to help finance projects in developing countries. In response to the recent Western charm offensive, China has scrapped tariffs on 98 percent of goods imported from nine of Africa’s Least Developed Countries (LDCs), additionally making numerous trips to the continent to strengthen relations. In addition, Power Africa and African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) are also important projects for African nations.
Where will Africa be after the New Scramble
Africa stands to benefit from the multipolar global order through the myriad projects, initiated by the emerging world powers. To attain the level of development it requires, the need for strategic partnerships and alliances with developed nations is a necessity. “A Partnerships of equals” as expressed by Von der Leyen of the European Commission, is a key prerequisite for Africa’s engagements with these powers. With the “New scramble for Africa” becoming fiercer by the day, Africa has an upper hand, with world powers rushing in to forge alliances with different African nations and pertinently the resource rich.
China, Russia, U.S, U.K, Japan and many other world powers, have been embroiled in a geopolitical contest for Africa. Africa should then refrain from taking sides by aligning itself with a singular world power, but instead strategically partner with all willing parties getting the best of them all. The multipolar world order presents untold economic prospects to be reaped from all these global powers combined, and could be the continent’s springboard into massive development. This will ignite development and enable the continent to position itself in the evolving multipolar world.
