- Sudan’s economy is set to shrink by 18.3 per cent this year even as joblessness hits nearly half the country’s population.
- Khartoum city, once a bustling hub, now bears the scars of conflict with factories, banks, shops, and markets falling victim to looting or destruction.
- About 10,400 schools in conflict-affected areas are closed, rendering 19 million Sudanese children without access to education.
The humanitarian crisis in Sudan is poised to worsen next year even as the economy is set to contract by 18 per cent in 2023. This comes as New York-based International Rescue Committee (IRC) identified Sudan as the foremost nation among 20 countries globally facing the greatest risk of a worsening humanitarian situation in 2024.
The IRC’s 2024 Emergency Watchlist report reveals that Sudan, with its economy in ruins, has over seven million displaced people. This alarming figure is part of a larger global trend, as 110 million people were forced to flee their homes in 2023, driven, among other factors, by armed conflict.
Since mid April this year, a conflict between the Sudanese Army and a paramilitary group known as the Rapid Support Forces has devastated the economy of Sudan, sparking a regional humanitarian crisis.
Impact of conflict on Sudan’s economy and society
Sudan is grappling with a profound crisis as detailed in the IRC report, which sheds light on the destructive repercussions of the ongoing conflict. The strife has not only torn the fabric of the nation but has left an indelible mark on its economy, disrupting livelihoods and exacerbating poverty levels.
The IRC report paints a grim picture of Sudan’s economic landscape, revealing that the conflict has delivered a severe blow to an already struggling economy. Projections indicate a staggering contraction of 18.3 per cent this year alone. Unemployment has soared, affecting nearly half the population, while the Sudanese pound has witnessed a drastic dip, losing at least 50 per cent of its value between April and October 2023, as reported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The capital city, Khartoum, once a bustling hub, now bears the scars of conflict with factories, banks, shops, and markets falling victim to looting or damage. This widespread destruction further diminishes the population’s access to essential goods, services, and cash, amplifying the hardships faced by ordinary citizens. The looming specter of inflation, expected to surpass 250 per cent, will persist well into 2024, even if the unlikely scenario of conflict resolution unfolds.
Trade disruptions, looting, and a decline in agricultural output compound the crisis, resulting in shortages of crucial goods and subsequent price increases. For a population already grappling with joblessness and financial hardship, this hit on Sudan’s economy translates to further erosion of purchasing power, perpetuating a cycle of economic despair.
Beyond the economic woes, the report highlights the human toll of the conflict. With a staggering 10,400 schools in conflict-affected areas closed, approximately 19 million children are left without access to education. This not only poses a significant threat to their immediate well-being but also exposes them to increased risks of abuse and exploitation.
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Escalating food insecurity in Sudan: a grim outlook shaped by war
The IRC’s 2024 Emergency Watchlist report paints a dire picture of Sudan’s looming food crisis, driven by the persistent conflict that shows no signs of abating. The report highlights the deeply troubling trend of increasing food insecurity, with approximately 20.3 million people grappling with the harsh reality of insufficient access to nourishment.
Alarmingly, 6.3 million individuals are facing critical levels of food insecurity, demanding urgent intervention to avert a humanitarian catastrophe. The nexus between conflict, rising prices, and agricultural disruption emerges as a central theme in the IRC’s analysis.
The war has not only led to soaring prices but has also disrupted agricultural activities, exacerbating the plight of the vulnerable population. The consequences are far-reaching, as large-scale displacement triggers labour shortages, and the escalating costs of crucial inputs, such as fuel, threaten to disrupt agricultural production. The IRC warns that these factors could culminate in reduced harvests, further propelling food prices upward amid the ongoing conflict and mounting inflationary pressures.
Of particular concern is the potential expansion of the conflict into vital agricultural regions, especially Aj Jazirah State, often referred to as Sudan’s ‘breadbasket.’ The report underscores that any encroachment into these areas would significantly impact food supply, compounding the already severe food crisis.
Adding to the complexity, the widespread looting of businesses, markets, and humanitarian food stores further worsens the scarcity of food resources, deepening the challenges faced by a beleaguered population.
Record displacement of populations
The IRC sounds a grave warning about the enduring and escalating crisis of internal and external displacement in Sudan, with far-reaching consequences across the region. The scale of the issue is staggering, with almost 6.6 million individuals displaced both within and outside Sudan due to the protracted conflict.
Within the borders of Sudan, 5.1 million people grapple with displacement, constituting the largest internal displacement crisis globally, indicative of the immense human toll exacted by the conflict.
The external ramifications are equally alarming, as over 1.3 million people, largely women and children, have sought refuge in neighboring countries. This mass exodus has not only strained the resources of host communities but has also engendered tensions, underscoring the complex interplay between displacement, humanitarian needs, and regional dynamics.
With the conflict threatening to spill over into neighbouring regions, particularly with Chad and South Sudan, the IRC underscores the potential for the Sudanese crisis to burgeon into a regional catastrophe, sucking in multiple countries and escalating humanitarian needs to catastrophic levels.
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Other conflict-saddled countries in Africa
In Sudan, the ongoing conflict has pushed the country to the top of the IRC’s Emergency Watchlist globally, creating a dire situation that extends beyond its borders. The effects of this war have the potential to destabilize South Sudan’s fragile economy, casting a shadow over the delicate period leading up to its first-ever elections scheduled for December 2024.
Burkina Faso is equally facing a concerning scenario, with approximately half of the country falling outside government control. Non-state armed groups, including the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) and Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), are blockading cities and towns, hindering access to basic goods and services. Consequently, food insecurity and poverty levels are soaring in various parts of the nation.
Mali is entangled in a complex web of conflict between the military government and armed groups, a situation predicted to escalate in 2024, resulting in increased civilian harm. The government, which assumed power in a 2021 coup, is now grappling with threats from armed groups, particularly in central and northern Mali, controlling as little as 15 per cent of the country.
Somalia faces widespread flooding due to El Niño, displacing over 700,000 people. Despite the end of the drought, ongoing government offensives against the armed group al-Shabaab pose risks of civilian harm and displacement. Political unrest in various regions adds to the humanitarian challenges anticipated in 2024.
Niger’s inclusion in the Emergency Watchlist Top 10 stems from a coup in July 2023, triggering massive instability and amplifying the ongoing humanitarian crisis. Tensions between the new military government and regional neighbors, coupled with the withdrawal of western states’ security assistance, elevate the risk of increased armed group activity.
The IRC’s report further highlights Ethiopia, Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and the Central African Republic as nations facing a worsening humanitarian situation in the coming year.
