- The crash that claimed mercenary Yevgeny Prigozhin’s life leaves a void that could significantly alter Africa’s geopolitical landscape.
- Wagner Group’s activities across West and Central Africa underscored Russia’s growing influence.
- For instance, Mali spends over $108 million annually on Wagner mercenaries, coupled with their significant presence in the oil sector.
The death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, former Russian President Vladimir Putin’s confidant and head of the mercenary Wagner Group, has cast a shadow over Russia’s intricate involvement in African economies.
A jet crash in Moscow that led to Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death has sparked questions about the future of Russian military support in Africa and other economic interests spanning across nations.
Putin said the Wagner Group boss, who led a brief rebellion against him in June 2023, was “a man of difficult fate” who often made serious mistakes.
In the US, a Pentagon spokesperson said Yevgeny Prigozhin “was likely killed.” Also reportedly killed in Wednesday’s plane crash between Moscow and St Petersburg was ex-special forces soldier Dmitry Utkin, a key enabler of Prigozhin’s plans.
Yevgeny Prigozhin’s influence via mercenary ventures
Yevgeny Prigozhin had reached well beyond Russia’s borders. Wagner Group’s mercenary activities across West and Central Africa underscored Russia’s growing influence. Analysts point to the group’s involvement in crisis-saddled African states like Mali, Central African Republic, Libya, and Sudan. Prigozhin-led deals allowed Russia to wield power while exploiting valuable resources such as gold and timber.
Mali, one of the most impoverished countries, has witnessed Wagner’s entrenchment, reports by the Center for Strategic and International Studies show. In Mali, Prigozhin’s men fought alongside local forces, battling insurgents and Islamists. Reports indicate Mali spends over $108 million annually on Wagner mercenaries and their significant presence in the oil sector.
CAR, plagued by decades of instability, welcomed Wagner’s intervention to bolster its regime. Wagner’s fighters, notorious for indiscriminate violence, intertwined with lucrative mining and timber enterprises. While CAR gained vital commercial ties, civilians suffered under Yevgeny Prigozhin’s men.
Also Read: The battle for Africa’s heart between Russia and the US
Wagner’s massive gold exports in Sudan
Wagner’s activities spread to Cameroon, Burkina Faso, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Sudan. While their intervention in Mozambique encountered setbacks, Sudan marked a triumph with massive gold exports. Libya, too, witnessed Wagner’s deployment under the veneer of warlord Khalifa Haftar’s command.
Meanwhile, according to DW, a Canadian and a South African company lost their mining licenses. In contrast, a Madagascan company—with close ties to Russia—was awarded a fresh mining concession deal.
Africa’s status as the continent with the youngest and fastest-growing population underscores its global significance. And this is causing complex strategic dilemmas for the West as Russia makes inroads into the continent.
Russia’s forays into Africa extend beyond its well-known Wagner Group and food aid. Most recently, Russia offered a no-cost shipment of 50,000 metric tonnes of grain to six hunger-stricken African countries following the collapse of the Black Sea Grain initiative in July. “Our country will continue supporting needy states and regions, particularly with its humanitarian deliveries,” explained Putin.
Moscow’s influence also extends to the energy sector, mainly through promoting nuclear energy to address the continent’s escalating energy demands. In contrast, Western nations must be faster to engage in energy diplomacy on the African continent.
However, analysts point out Russia’s involvement does not entail comprehensive development aid or capacity-building. Instead, it exacerbates existing global challenges, risking instability, particularly for Europe.
Recent shifts in approach have seen Western actors, the US and France, prioritize political, economic, and social engagements over security components. This evolution aligns with the limited scope of Russia’s efforts in these domains but opens the door for Russian security gains.
While reframing Western strategies toward Africa’s security landscape is pragmatic, it comes with risks. Russia’s approach capitalizes on the gaps left by the de-prioritization of security. The void Western retrenchment creates allows Russia to bolster its military-security standing, entrenching itself further.
Kremlin’s denial and financial ties
The Kremlin initially distanced itself from Prigozhin’s endeavors in Africa. However, evidence emerged of financial ties between Wagner Group and governments like Mali. Wagner’s control over Mali’s oil and gold sectors underscored their grip on valuable resources.
Prigozhin’s enigmatic influence left an indelible mark on African geopolitics. The Wagner Group’s complex web of ventures encompassed trade, military cooperation, and resource extraction. Now a battleground for multiple global players, including China, Africa is witnessing a heightened contest for dominance.
Prigozhin’s death raises questions about the stability of Russia’s influence in Africa. The Wagner Group’s operations had showcased Russia’s strategic aspirations. Still, his absence might trigger shifts in dynamics even as analysts project that the Kremlin might start exercising more control over African affairs.
As Africa remains a focal point of global competition, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s legacy is a testament to Russia’s ambition to secure its foothold. The crash that claimed his life leaves a void that could alter Africa’s geopolitical landscape in unforeseen ways.
