- At the beginning of February, Nigerians started complaining that commercial banks could not supply individuals with Nigeria’s physical fiat currency.
- The currency situation in Nigeria escalated to an all out crisis this week when an impending deadline for the ban of the use of old notes.
- The Supreme Court on Wednesday, suspended the deadline to ease the tension that has been building up exacerbated by heated campaigns and a looming fuel crisis.
In the middle of intense campaigns that will see three main presidential candidates battle it out in Nigeria’s 2023 election, the country is experiencing a shortage of the new Naira notes that threatens to take centre-stage before the West African nation goes to the polls from 25 February.
All Progress Party (APC) candidate Bola Tinibu, People’s Democratic Party (PDP) Atiku Abubakar and outsider Peter Obi of Labour Party are considered the front runners to take over from outgoing President Muhammadu Buhari.
The currency situation in Nigeria escalated to an all out crisis this week when an impending deadline for the ban of the use of old notes resulted in protests and mob attacks in banks and ATMs amidst a shortage of the new notes. The Supreme Court on Wednesday, suspended the deadline to ease the tension that has been building up exacerbated by heated campaigns and a looming fuel crisis.
What is the genesis of the currency crisis?
At the beginning of February, Nigerians started complaining that commercial banks could not supply individuals with Nigeria’s physical fiat currency. This led to an instant uproar, given that the Central Bank of Nigeria had issued a deadline of 10 February. According to CBN, after the deadline, the old notes will cease to have value.
Tinubu rejects redesign
Bola Tinubu has expressed his disinterest in the current regime of President Buhari. He alleged that the currency re-designation policy and the current fuel scarcity had turned Nigeria into a dystopian disaster. Unfortunately, despite not having any official announcements, it was clear that President Buhari and Tinubu did not see eye to eye. Bola claimed that the recent dilemma faced within Nigeria’s ecosystem was a strategic tactic to ensure he does not win next month’s presidential election.
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On the other hand, Peter Obi supported the currency redesigning policy. Unfortunately, he met great hostility from Tinubu’s campaign. According to Obi, the redesign will have long-term economic and social benefits for the country. In hindsight, if most citizens cannot turn to eNaira adoption as an alternative, it would significantly reduce the circulation of the old naira notes. As a result, it would increase the value of the new notes. However, it will significantly damage the livelihood of the ordinary Nigerian man. The spokesperson of APC, Remi Omowaiye, stated that e-policy attempts to inflict pain on Nigerians and that any conspirators are in cahoots with such a regime.
He stated that since Peter Obi was once a bank chairman, he understood that only banks would benefit from this hardship. In addition, he stated that Obi has a severe interest in Fidelity Bank. Instead of using state funds to develop Nigeria’s economy, he invested in a fidelity bank. If this regime passes, it would mean more value for his “reserved” funds.
This policy would not only force citizens to turn to eNaira as an alternative, but it would tighten the grip of control CBN.
Using Naira scarcity as a boost in Nageria’s 2023 Elections
Despite having different opinions on Nigeria’s naira scarcity and digital currency, they can utilize it. Bola Tinudu has a net worth of $32.7 billion, a staggering amount when you consider his exploits so far. It is common for such an individual to leverage the newly redesigned naira.
Tinubu believes that the current government is trying to squeeze his regime out, but it might work the other way around. Tinubu has had a string of corruption accusations over the years.
Tinubu is known for his ability to rouse Nigerian people to militant action and provoke them to action. By leveraging in the disdain and the hardships brought by the Naira scarcity, Tinubu can inspire, buy or power through their hardships. In a sense, Tinubu claims that he was not attacking president Buhari directly, simply pointing out the government’s ploy on the eNaira adoption of Nigeria’s 2023 election schemes.
Unlike Bola Tinubu, Peter Obi has allegedly direct benefits from the Naira shortage. With his bold attempts at “reinvesting” state funds, the Naira shortage and a high eNaira adoption would significantly boost not only his earnings but the control of CBN. Either way, both candidates can exploit this current hardship.
Nigeria’s 2023 election; candidate backgrounds
Bola Tinubu
Bola Tinubu is a 70-year-old legend known in Nigeria for his exploits in reshaping Nigeria’s commercial hub, Lagos. He is a former two-term governor of the Lagos state, where he leveraged transforming the city into what it is today. During his term, he attracted foreign investors and was able to improve public transport. Bola Tinubu had a career in politics since the 1990s when he was part of the pro-democrat National Coalition, where he gained the skills necessary to shape him into the man he is. Furthermore, he was once forced into exile by Military ruler Sani Abacha.
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However, Bola has had a rocky political career as well. On numerous occasions, Bola has faced various corruption charges. In 2021 Dapo Apara, an accountant at Alpha-beta, a firm Bola Tinubu that purportedly holds stock, accused him of using the firm for money laundering and other illegal activities. Bola Tinubu denied these claims, stating they were mere attempts to hinder his progress in building Nigeria’s economy.
Bola is one of the wealthiest politicians in Nigeria, but some question his source of wealth, for good reasons. According to an interview with the BBC, Bola said he inherited some real estate he later invested in. To further raise suspicion, he claimed he became an ‘Instant millionaire’ while working as a Deloitte and Touche auditor.
Peter Obi
Peter Obi is the former governor of South Eastern Anambra state with a strong track record. As Nigeria consistently looks for solutions to its many problems, many young Nigerians have turned to Peter Obi as a ray of hope. Peter is one of the first candidates to participate, let alone lead the presidential predictions. Labor Party is an unknown political party currently supporting his escapades in Nigeria’s 2023 election.
According to his manifesto, Nigeria has suffered tremendously, and these problems directly affect its economy, more so its fiat currency. According to an interview with the BBC, he stated that Nigeria’s 2022 election would be the old against the new. His primary strategy leverages social media to target young Nigerian minds and inspire them to take up the responsibility of building Nigeria’s economy. Unfortunately, within this entire process, most of his opponents call him a political impostor. His opponents regard his vision and dreams as one who springs up at election time with delusions of change that would replace the traditional parties.
Mr Obi has a vast majority of popularity among the young but this only accounts for a segment of Nigeria’s population. He still needs to gain nationwide popularity to win the election. In hindsight, his critics have started to question whether or not Peter Obi has the right mindset to lead Nigeria into actual change. Obi’s source of wealth is no exception. He appeared in the leaked Pandora Papers, which exposed the hidden wealth of the rich and powerful in 2021.
Furthermore, Obi invested state funds as a governor into a company he had dealings with. He, however, denied any wrongdoing stating that the investment has yielded significant gain since then. He has repeatedly stated that the presidential seat is not a do-or-die game for him, yet he has changed parties four times since 2002.
