Africa: What if oil disappeared tomorrow?

If oil disappeared tomorrow, thousands of petroleum-based products would vanish with it.
If oil disappeared tomorrow, it would be catastrophic for health services everywhere.
If oil disappeared tomorrow, millions of jobs would be lost. Tax revenues would be depleted, and industrial production would crimp.

If oil disappeared tomorrow, there would be no more jet fuel, gasoline, or diesel. Internal combustion engines, automobiles, trucks, lorries, and coaches would be stranded. Airplanes powered by jet fuel would be grounded. Freight and passenger rail powered by diesel would halt. People could not get to work; children could not get to school. The shipping industry, transporting both freight and passengers, would be devastated.

There would be no point in calling emergency services. Most ambulances, fire engines, police cars, rescue helicopters, and other emergency vehicles would be stationary. Most phones and computers would also vanish as their plastic components derive from oil, so it would be a struggle to communicate with the emergency services anyway.

The construction sector would halt, as diesel-powered vehicles would be stranded: excavators, bulldozers, dump trucks, cranes, cement mixers, rollers, and compact loaders would remain stationary. New homes or buildings could not be built or receive vital maintenance work.

If oil disappeared tomorrow, petroleum-based products would vanish with it. This would impact the production of electric vehicles (EVs). Aside from the supply chain disruption, the structure of lithium-ion batteries would be affected. A lithium-ion battery has four parts: an anode, a cathode, an electrolyte, and a separator.

Separators are engineered microporous membranes, typically made of polyethylene or polypropylene petroleum-based products. The petroleum-derived synthetic rubber used on cars and bicycle tyres would cease.

If oil disappeared tomorrow, food production would be devastated. Many of the vehicles necessary in agriculture – tractors, mowers, combine harvesters, balers, sprayers, and seeders – would stop working. Food packaging required for storage and preservation would not be available.

Petroleum coke, a by-product of oil refining, is used as a feedstock in manufacturing synthetic fertilizers and is essential in increasing crop yields. Food shortages and the knock-on impacts would likely ensue.

If oil disappeared tomorrow, it would be catastrophic for health services everywhere. Staff would lack mobility, and essential supplies would be stranded. Beyond transportation, petroleum is an essential feedstock for pharmaceuticals, plastics and medical supplies.

Latex gloves, medical tubes, medical syringes, adhesives, some bandages, disinfectants, hand sanitisers, cleaning agents, prosthetics, artificial heart valves, resuscitation masks, stethoscopes, MRI scanners, insulin pens, infusion bags, medication packaging, face masks, Personal Protection Equipment are largely derived from petroleum-based materials. The equipment used in medical research, such as microscopes, test tubes and goggles, usually contain petroleum-derived components.

The chemical synthesis that creates aspirin begins with benzene derived from petroleum. The benzene is converted to phenol, which is converted to salicylic acid. This is then transformed into acetylsalicylic acid, known as aspirin.

It is difficult to conceive of a modern hospital without this range of essential petroleum-based products.

Ethylene used in the production of solar panels would vanish

If oil disappeared tomorrow, the renewables industry would be impacted. The fibreglass, resin or plastic necessary for the construction of most wind turbines would disappear. The ethylene used in the production of solar panels would vanish. Most mining vehicles – large trucks, rotary drill rigs, and rock drills – are necessary to extract the critical minerals upon which the production of solar photovoltaic plants, wind farms, and EVs depend, and they would become stationary.

If oil disappeared tomorrow, homes would be transformed beyond recognition. There is the possibility roofs would collapse, for example, if bitumen were a key product. Other materials used in insulating homes would disappear. If you relied on heating oil to keep warm, that would go.

The linoleum flooring and tiling would be impacted. Painting the walls would be a challenge. Furniture, pillows, rugs, curtains, dishes, cups and non-stick pans will likely be made from petroleum-derived products.

It would be challenging to stay clean or keep homes clean if oil disappeared tomorrow. Laundry detergent and dish detergents usually derive from petroleum-based products. Soap, toothpaste, hand lotion, deodorant, shampoo, shaving cream, eyeglasses, contact lenses, combs, and brushes; all normally contain petroleum-derived products.

It would be a struggle to get anywhere, as the asphalt that paves roads and footpaths would vanish.

If oil disappeared tomorrow, tax revenues would be depleted

If oil disappeared tomorrow, millions of jobs would be lost. Tax revenues would be depleted. Industrial production would crimp. Economic growth would go into reverse. The plight of the fuel poor would be worsened.

This is not even the full list of everything that would be impacted in such an unthinkable scenario.

Yet, despite these realities, there are calls saying, ‘Just stop oil,’ ‘Keep it in the ground,’ or ‘Do not invest in new oil and gas projects.’

Of course, everybody wants to see greenhouse gas emissions reduced. OPEC believes that technological solutions and efficiency improvements can play a vital role. The oil industry is already proactive in this regard.

We need to be cautious about endangering the present to save the future. We all must fully understand the immense benefits that oil and the petroleum products derived from it, continue to provide to people and nations worldwide.

The author, Haitham Al Ghais, is the Secretary General OPEC.