Browsing: Monetary Policy

• Central banks across Africa weighing interest rates in the next three weeks are poised to lower them, cautious that the opportunity to ease further may dissipate after President Trump formally assumes office.
• The Trump presidency is anticipated to strengthen the dollar further, primarily due to his commitment to significantly raising tariffs on imported goods.
• A new wave of inflation, driven by the strengthening dollar from the Trump effect, would exacerbate the already high inflation rates in many African countries.

Donald Trump’s return to the Whitehouse sent the dollar surging against both G10 and emerging market currencies in a change that has potentially far-reaching macroeconomic repercussions for African nations.

As Trump’s victory became evident, the “Trump Trade” pushed 10-year Treasury yields up by 0.16 per cent to 4.44 per cent. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which measures the dollar’s performance against a basket of major currencies, saw its largest single-day increase since …

• The Central Bank of Nigeria has decided to increase the minimum capital requirement for lenders to bolster the country’s economy.
• Nigerian banks now face weaker capital ratios and higher impaired loans.
• The last time Nigeria recapitalised its banking sector dates back to 2004.

Minimum capital requirement for lenders

Following the surge in inflation levels, a deteriorating economy, and the plummeting of the Naira, the CBN has decided to increase the minimum capital requirement for lenders to bolster the country’s economy.

Under the new regulations, the Central Bank of Nigeria has raised the capital threshold for international banks to $359 million …

• The IMF has issued Uganda $120 million as part of its Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement to aid recovery.
• Total disbursement to Uganda under the ECF Arrangement now reaches $870 million.
• IMF urges Uganda to give its Central Bank independence 

Kampala is set to receive $120 million as part of its Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to aid Uganda’s economic recovery amidst various challenges, including backlash due to a harsh anti-LGBTQ law.

The IMF executive board has approved immediate disbursement of the said amount after the conclusion of its fifth review of Uganda’s ECF Arrangement. “This brings the aggregate disbursement under the ECF Arrangement to about $870 million,” the IMF note says in part.

Uganda qualified for about $1 billion under the ECF Arrangement as of June 2021, which is now distributed in part every other year.

IMF loan to aid Uganda’s economic recovery

• Non-performing loans in Kenya surged to a 16-year high of 15 per cent in August 2023.
• The Kenya Bankers Association had called for further monetary policy tightening by the CBK, terming it a cure to elevated non-performing loans.
• According to the CBK data, forex pressure cut lending to the private sector to 8.3 per cent during the review period.

The banking sector regulator has said that Kenya’s private sector players resorted to alternative funding sources to avoid the high lending rates, leading to a drop in non-performing loans during the holiday season.

The continued surge in bank interest rates has hit individuals and businesses hard on the back of the Central Bank of Kenya’s (CBK) elevated benchmark interest rate. This has happened thrice since Governor Kamau Thugge took office, citing the need to support the country’s struggling shilling.

On Tuesday this week, the Central Bank of Kenya increased the benchmark …

• Nigeria’s inflation rate has remained high for the past 9 years, way before COVID-19 and the disruptions it imposed.
• Experts have argued that Nigeria’s inflation results from excess money supply in the economic system chasing too few goods.
• Nigeria’s inflation climbed to a new 18-year high in November, matching a record level last seen in 2005.

In 2021, the global economy experienced an inflation surge. This was the first time in many decades that inflation hit double digits in most developed and emerging economies. In the United States, inflation peaked at 9.1 per cent in July 2022, the highest in 40 years.

Such high levels of inflation were unusual and uncomfortable, and the Central Banks in the affected countries tackled it ruthlessly. The applied policy actions paid off and inflation has been moderating fast.

However, what obtains in Nigeria paints a starkly different image from what the rest of the …

In the last 20 years, Africa’s external debt has grown fivefold to about $700 billion. According to Chatham House, a policy centre in London, Chinese lenders account for about 12 per cent of that amount. As of November 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank considered 22 low-income African countries to either be in debt distress or facing potential external debt distress.…

Countries must continue to work to mitigate their vulnerabilities over time. This involves minimizing balance-sheet misalignments, establishing money and foreign exchange markets, and lowering exchange rate passthrough by increasing monetary policy credibility.

However, in the short term—while vulnerabilities remain high—the use of extra instruments may assist relieve short-term policy trade-offs when certain shocks occur. In particular, foreign exchange intervention, macroprudential policy measures, and capital flow controls may help increase monetary and fiscal policy autonomy, promote financial and price stability, and minimize output volatility if reserves are enough and these instruments are available.…