Browsing: AfCFTA

African countries looking to anchor their currencies on either gold, or a combination of gold, precious metals, and other minerals would need to start with legislation which would make it legal for the governments of those countries to redeem paper currency with either those minerals or a derivative of those minerals.

Zimbabwe in late August began an initiative where it sold actual gold coins to its citizens which had been minted by that country’s central bank. This move was initiated to halt the slide of the currency on the parallel and official markets. This county’s policy so far has been successful in slowing down the trend of inflation which had begun to run amok.

It would be remiss to attribute the slowdown inflation to the gold coins. The country dramatically tightened its monetary policy by increasing interest rates to over 200 per cent in May 2022 and temporarily banned commercial bank lending. One of the disadvantages of the gold standard is that governments struggled for decades to make the system work globally. The gold standard reached its watershed when Richard Nixon in 1971 took the United States dollar off the gold standard.

Ghana competes in the global economy primarily using natural resources. Other than the usual exports of cocoa, gold, lumber, and crude oil, Ghana has a competitive advantage in numerous product categories. Increasing the proportion of high-income commodities in the export basket hastens economic transition.

The opportunity is providing better, economically advantageous items to regional and worldwide markets. Cocoa processing, wood processing, aluminium products, palm oil, food and agro-processing, and fish processing are examples of manufacturing sub-sectors that fit these two requirements.

Manufacturing subsectors that capture considerable proportions of manufacturing value-added, such as food and drinks, chemicals, and textiles, have significant technology, knowledge, and skills inherent in them. These assets can be used to produce additional goods within the sub-sector or even outside of it. It is also easier to go up the value chain after you have mastered relevant technologies and markets.

To have only 3 of the eligible countries in Africa signing up for the initiative is tragic especially given the global economic environment of the world presently. A crippling sovereign crisis is looming on the African horizon. Catalysts of the crisis include a strong United States dollar which has been resurgent during the year.

Debt on the on the books of most African countries is denominated in the greenback and its strength will have an adverse impact on their public finances and their ability to service their loan obligations timeously.

This problem is further compounded by rising interest rates which are certain to make the cost of debt that much more expensive for countries that already cannot afford to be overextended financially.

The debt of most African countries is in the hands of private creditors who in recent time have become as important as their multilateral counterparts. These private creditors are less likely to be concessionary in terms of discussions around restructuring of debts.

The rising commodity prices, surging inflationary pressures, and the contracting global financial situation have risked African trade and production capabilities. Moreover, the rising threat of sovereign defaults poses a severe risk to the growth of African trade. Thus, African trade prospects remain unclear, considering the challenging global economic scenario.

The Covid-19, energy and food shortages have hit with the countries having minimal or no policy space to respond. As a result, African countries have fallen into a real risk of debt distress and even possibilities for sovereign debt default.

The AfCFTA presents a significant opportunity for African countries to bring 30 million people out of extreme poverty and to raise the incomes of 68 million others who live on less than $5.50 per day.  The AfCFTA is the new anchor to pull multinationals to invest in Africa.

This agreement not only brings hope to African governments but also encourages current efforts on the ground, which improve jobs in Africa.  

The World Bank points out that the AfCFTA will create the largest free trade area in the world, measured by the number of countries participating. The pact connects 1.3 billion people across 55 countries with a combined gross domestic product (GDP) valued at $3.4 trillion.   

It has the potential to lift 30 million people out of extreme poverty, but achieving its full potential will depend on putting in place significant policy reforms and trade facilitation measures. 

It is critical to strengthen a professional, independent supervision secretariat to make the AfCFTA agreement’s promise a reality. A strong secretariat can assist states in developing strong domestic institutions to administer, monitor, and enforce the AfCFTA. The moment for change has arrived. The conventional development models have failed Africa. The AfCFTA, on the other hand, signifies that Africa is open for business.

AfCFTA will be a game changer for Africa, but its success depends on certain enablers being present. The first and most obvious impediment and an obstacle to the initiative will be mustering the political will of the signatories to implement the necessary reforms to enable its success.  This may not always be politically feasible or possible.

The less obvious enablers and the financial institutions on the African continent. Their presence and activities have a direct and strong bearing on the success of AfCFTA. One of the foremost bankers on the African continent, Sim Tshabalala, the chief executive of the continent’s largest banking institution by assets, is fond of saying that banking is a derived business. This means that banks butter their bread from the activities of economic agents.

If AfCFTA is to succeed in its quest to merge the various comparative advantages of the countries that constitute Africa it will need champion banks to support the intra and intercontinental trade activity from there being a single market and all participants, both local and foreign looking to make money. Africa will need champion banks to facilitate the flow of capital to worthwhile projects and ensure that the capital deployed into various activities earns the best returns for its providers.

The current large-scale transition of the global economy, principally triggered by the current conflict between Ukraine and Russia as well as the standoff between China and the United States, creates a multipolar world map with new centres of power.

Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, also known as the BRICS nations, have enhanced industrial and financial might and are pushing for a seat at the global new power axis table. These nations are essential participants in international markets for products, services, and money, having a considerable, sometimes decisive, effect on how the global economy operates.

Nations launched the AfCFTA as one of the actions made to support more extensive intra-African trade. The AfCFTA aspires to establish a unified continental market for goods and services. The agreement seeks to harmonise the continent’s various trade liberalization procedures and promote regional integration. Each African nation is a member of at least one of the continent’s approximately 30 bilateral or regional trade agreements.

Africa suffers from marginalization in the global trade system. Nevertheless, the African Regional Trade Agreements heralded a new age of economic integration with significant trade creation impacts. The path to free trade poses several significant obstacles and concerns that African governments must solve.

For historic reasons, bilateral and regional trade in Africa has been hampered by trade routes designed for export away from the continent rather than for facilitating intra-Africa trade. Obstacles include long distances, inadequate transport services, and inefficient institutional and transit regimes.

In many landlocked African countries, economic centres are located several hundred kilometres away from the closest seaport. Overcoming geographic constraints or the lack of economies of scale caused by small transportation volumes is key for all countries, particularly transit countries. A renewed focus on the efficiency of transport and logistics services is long overdue, given that many countries retain policies that favour closed, small, and inefficient services markets.

By committing to no new barriers to services trade during the progressive liberalization process, at least in the five priority sectors—business, communication, financial, transport, and tourism services, and with declining trade costs—the transport sector is bound to expand.