Author: Veera Tuomala

The Iran war is unlikely to be short, precise, or containable. The current trajectory points towards a measured and growing confrontation. Tehran has prepared for this scenario for decades. The gradual escalation it is now showing suggests that it is bracing for a longer conflict. More sophisticated missile capabilities and proxies are being held back. During the earlier 12-day confrontation, Iranian attacks intensified roughly a week into hostilities. Progression in a similar manner is possible, particularly if the United States resorts to ground troops. The implications of this war are immediate and structural for the Horn of Africa and Red…

Is the Horn of Africa becoming a permanently internationalised region, structurally shaped by external power projection? An in-depth analysis on the internationalisation of the Horn. The Horn of Africa has transitioned from being a temporary flashpoint that attracted international attention primarily during episodic crises such as piracy, counterterrorism, or famine. It now constitutes a permanent strategic arena, increasingly integrated into broader geostrategic systems, power projection, and security architectures. External powers are deeply embedded in the region’s local politics and security dynamics. Conflicts in Yemen and Sudan, along with maritime insecurity in the Red Sea, have further integrated the Horn into…

Fighting in Ethiopia’s Tselemti district has reopened a dormant front in the Tigray conflict, prompting airstrikes, flight suspensions, and renewed displacement risks. The clashes expose the fragility of the Pretoria Agreement, which has failed to resolve core political, territorial, and security disputes. Without early diplomatic intervention, the escalation could quickly widen undermining hard-won gains since 2022. Clashes in a long-contested borderland in Ethiopia On 26 January 2026, forces aligned with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) launched an offensive on the Tselemti district, approximately 350 km south-west of Mekelle, in Ethiopia. Currently, the area is held by local Amhara militias and…