Browsing: Monetary Policy Committee

• Kenya’s private sector activity and new orders rises for the first time in six months.
• Selling price inflation hits long-run average as cost burdens ease.
• However, PMI shows lowest confidence towards future output in the survey’s history.

Kenya’s business conditions improved in February, expanding private sector activity due to a further softening of inflationary pressures supported a fresh increase in new order volumes.

Stanbic Bank Kenya Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for February registered at 51.3 per cent as lower fuel prices helped to cool input cost inflation to a 26-month low, supporting the softest increase in output prices for one-and-a-half years.

Improving business conditions are said to have led Kenyan companies to expand staffing levels at a faster rate albeit by largely hiring casuals pointing to a cautionary stance towards hiring permanently.

Nevertheless, confidence regarding future activity fell to a survey low, suggesting a broad degree of uncertainty that activity …

• The cost of borrowing in Kenya has been going up since October last year, when it was at 10.50 per cent, before two consecutive raises.
• This means banks are likely to adjust their interest rates upwards, pushing the cost of borrowing beyond the reach of many.
• The majority of bank rates are currently above 20 per cent, amid a high default rate as banks struggle with Non-Performing Loans (NPLs).

Higher interest rates to raise the cost of borrowing in Kenya

The cost of borrowing in Kenya is set for yet another rise if banks are to factor in the latest Central Bank of Kenya increase in the base-lending rate.

The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) has raised borrowing costs to highs last seen nearly 12 years ago, as it moves to try and contain the country’s inflation, which has started to pick.

On Tuesday, the Monetary Policy Committee, CBK’s top …

• Businesses in Kenya are facing the impact of tightened monetary policy that is resulting in high lending rates.
• The government is under increasing pressure from investors to settle huge pending bills.
• At the same time, the Kenya Shilling is steadily losing ground against major world currencies, piling pressure on external debt obligations.

In the second half of the year, business optimism for companies and sectoral growth prospects in Kenya appears to be subdued, largely influenced by the dual challenges of high taxes and a weakening Shilling.

The government’s task of balancing rising debt levels with tax revenue generation is taking center stage in a scenario complicated by other economic factors.

A confluence of high-interest rates within the banking sector, a politically sensitive environment, the accumulation of pending bills that impact private sector cash flow, and the depreciation of the Kenyan Shilling is painting a complex business environment.

The Shilling has …

• Dr Kamau Thugge, who is President Ruto’s advisor on fiscal affairs, is set to take over from Dr Patrick Njoroge.
• Previously, Dr Thugge served as the Permanent Secretary at Kenya’s National Treasury between 2013 and 2019.
• Prior to his nomination as Principal Secretary, he worked as a senior economic adviser in the Ministry of Finance since 2010.

President William Ruto has nominated former IMF economist Dr Kamau Thugge for appointment to head the Central Bank of Kenya. Dr Ruto picked Dr Thugge out of a list of six candidates who were interviewed on May 9th for the job that helps define Kenya’s fiscal policy.

Dr Thugge is not a stranger at Kenya’s financial industry. For close to 10 years, between 2013 and 2019, he served as the Principal Secretary, National Treasury under former President Uhuru Kenyatta. He was, however, hounded out of office over allegations of corruption. The scandal, which …

Kenya’s inflation has marginally dropped for the third straight month providing relief to households that have been battling runaway inflation since April last year.

The overall year-on-year inflation rate as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 9.0 per cent in January 2023, down from 9.1 per cent in December and 9.5 per cent in November last year.

It hit a five-year high of 9.6 per cent in October 2022, data by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) shows. The lower inflation (measure of the cost of living) in January however remains above the preferred ceiling of 7.5 per cent.

According to the government statistician, the high inflation was due to increase in prices of commodities under transport (13.1%), food and non-alcoholic beverages (12.8%) and housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (7.3%) between January 2022 and January 2023.

These three divisions account for over 57 per …

The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) has retained the base lending rate in the country at 8.75 per cent, citing easing inflationary pressure and positive macroeconomics outlook.

CBK’s decision making orga­­­­­n –­­­­­­­­ Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on Monday  against a backdrop of a weak global growth outlook, decline in global commodity prices, easing inflationary pressures, geopolitical tensions, persistent uncertainties, and measures taken by authorities around the world in response to these developments.

This includes the back-to-back fed rate hikes witnessed in the US as the country navigated high inflation which hit a peak last year.

Kenya’s overall inflation decreased to 9.1 per cent in December 2022 from 9.5 per cent in November, mainly due to lower food prices.

Food inflation declined to 13.8 per cent in December from 15.4 per cent in November, largely driven by a decrease in prices of maize and milk products.

This is pegged on …

According to Njoroge, it may be harder to borrow even as inflation increases due to advanced economies’ practices, such as rate hikes, which have shut us out of the financial system.

He mentioned that he had a discussion with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to urge the US Fed to give the impact of its policies on developing nations more consideration.

In order to ensure that emerging economies are not left on their own, he stated, “we need support from mature economies.”

Njoroge pointed out that despite this, emerging markets like Kenya have exhibited exceptional resilience in the face of global shocks, continuing to thrive.…