Browsing: South Africa

China's role in Africa external debt

In the last 20 years, Africa’s external debt has grown fivefold to about $700 billion. According to Chatham House, a policy centre in London, Chinese lenders account for about 12 per cent of that amount. As of November 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank considered 22 low-income African countries to either be in debt distress or facing potential external debt distress.

BRICS currency challenging US dollar's dominance in international trade

In recent months, the discourse about de-dollarisation has gained momentum. The sanctions against Russia have exposed the danger of over-dependence on the US dollar in international trade. The recent foreign exchange challenges have also recharged the growing efforts to bolster other currencies.

De-dollarisation could soon become a reality. A BRICS substitute to the dollar could enjoy high prospects for success, a former White House adviser, Joseph Sullivan, has noted. Sullivan served as a staff economist at the White House Council of Economic Advisers during the Trump administration. According to him, a potential BRICS currency poses a unique threat to the dominance of the US dollar in international trade.

BRICS nations championing the de-dollarization of international trade.

The global financial landscape has undergone a remarkable transformation in recent times. Remarkably, the issue of the de-dollarization of international trade is slowly but steadily gathering momentum. A rising trend toward de-dollarization is challenging the longstanding supremacy of the United States in the international financial system. As the dominant global reserve currency, the US dollar remains pivotal in international trade, investment, and financial transactions.

South Africa economic outlook 2022

In terms of the fiscus, South Africa expects to run a deficit of -4.1 per cent in 2023, however, the deficit is expected to narrow for the next 3 years closing 2026 at -3.6 per cent. This demonstrates significant fiscal consolidation.

Over the next 3 years the South African government expects to consolidate its public finances and reduce its deficit by inter alia increasing revenues and or managing or containing costs. According to Investec, “The current fiscal year (2022/23) has seen a substantial boost to nominal (actual) GDP due to high inflation, which has eased both the fiscal debt and deficit projections as a per cent of GDP, although does not boost real GDP, which is the measure of the country’s growth and has the distorting effect of inflation removed.”

Among countries in Africa, South Africa is getting its public financial act together. The country is paying down its debts, inflation has been showing a strong downward trajectory. What remains to be seen is whether this decreasing inflation rate will continue.