Author: Kevin Odero

A 10.3% African inflation 2026 forecast demands a new strategy. The Exchange analyzes the Fisher formula for real returns and provides a playbook for African SMEs in Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana, and South Africa. For the better part of three years, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Africa have been engaged in a war of attrition. Founders and entrepreneurs have been facing an alliance of difficulties: a steadily eroding purchasing power, currency volatility and the relentless math of diminishing returns. As entrepreneurs navigate the first quarter of 2026, the battlefield is shifting. According to the latest data from the African Development…

Burkina Faso mining defies insurgency to hit 94-tonne production. An in-depth analysis of Iamgold’s $165m spend, IMF revenue forecasts and the 2026 expansion boom. Burkina Faso, a nation grappling with a debilitating Islamist insurgency and governed by a military junta that has ostracised itself from traditional regional blocs, is experiencing a mining boom that is fundamentally reshaping its fiscal reality and its geopolitical standing. Latest strategic communications from mining investment companies, verified by IMF data and industry reports, paint a picture of an industry defying the security odds. As of early 2026, the Burkina Faso mining industry is no longer…

Despite billion dollar commitments, data shows that financing female entrepreneurs Africa is decreasing. Leaders at the 39th AU Summit explored the reality of funding female founders and the gap between pledges and disbursements. As expected, the 39th Ordinary Session of the Assembly of Heads of State and Government unfolded with the usual pomp and colour, bilateral handshakes and declarations on continental unity. But for a critical mass of African leaders, policymakers, and investors, the real business of reshaping the continent’s economic future took place not in the main plenary, but in a series of high-stakes side events centered on a…

With debt at 132% of GDP and $485 million Eurobond due in March 2026, Senegal political outlook is now ‘the next major test for the international financial system.’ Can President Faye avert a default? Two years after Bassirou Diomaye Faye swept into office as Senegal’s youngest-ever president, the West African country stands at a precipice. The April 2024 election was hailed as a democratic turning point, a peaceful transfer of power that ended Macky Sall’s twelve-year rule and brought to power a pan-Africanist, sovereigntist government led by youthful Faye promising “systemic rupture.” Today, that rupture has arrived, but not in…

As the AfCFTA digital settlement platform evolves, a two-horse race  is emerging: Stablecoins vs. PAPSS, pitting a private-sector digital dollar alternative against a continental public-sector solution with SMEs caught in the middle, hoping for lower fees. Across the sprawling markets of Lagos, the textile shops of Johannesburg, and the cross-border trading posts of Malawi and Zambia, a quiet revolution is underway in how money moves. For decades, a small-scale trader in Nairobi sending payment to a supplier in Johannesburg faced a labyrinth of costs and delays: currency conversions into US dollars, intermediary bank fees, and settlement times stretching into days.…

Ports, minerals, trade deals and billions in development finance: an in-depth analysis on UAE vs Saudi Arabia in East Africa. Who’s winning the race? For decades, the competition for influence in East Africa was a two-player game. On one side stood China, with its infrastructure-for-resources model and big ticket loans. On the other stood the West, with its development conditionality and multi-lateral lenders. Today, the board has new players, and they are not waiting their turn. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia are engaged in an intensifying competition for economic primacy across East Africa, deploying…

With AGOA renewed for only 11 months, African exporters face an ‘uncertainty tax’, and Washington is demanding reciprocity. Here’s our in-depth analysis on AGOA Renewal 2026 status and what it means for jobs, factories and U.S.-Africa trade. For 25 years, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) was the closest thing to certainty in trans-Atlantic trade. Every decade or so, the U.S. Congress would renew it. Investors budgeted for it. Factories were built, workers trained, and supply chains woven around its duty-free threads. Then, on September 30, 2025, it stopped. For four months, AGOA, the flagship U.S. trade preference program…

US trade barriers 2026: As Washington extends AGOA but preserves punitive tariffs, Africa’s agricultural exporters are caught in a pincer. With the 2026 deadline looming, a survival strategy is emerging, not from Geneva or Pretoria, but from the cold stores of Citrusdal and the shea cooperatives of Ibadan. The mechanics of survival in the lucrative United States market have, for African agricultural exporters, become brutally simple. A South African orange grower sending citrus to Newark pays 30 per cent at the border. His counterpart in Chile, unloading identical navel oranges at the same New Jersey pier, pays 10 per cent.…

With $194 billion in proposed green hydrogen projects but only 17MW operational, which African hub offers bankable returns? Here is a data-driven contrast of Namibia, South Africa, and Kenya ahead of the Green Economy Summit Cape Town. For the past three years, the competition to crown Africa’s green hydrogen champion has resembled a high-stakes bidding war conducted entirely in press releases. National strategies were unfurled with great ceremony. Megaprojects were announced in multiples of billions. European energy ministers flew south to sign memoranda of understanding with such frequency that the documents began to resemble diplomatic souvenirs rather than binding financial…

An indepth analysis of five sectors positioned for asymmetric upside post-Uganda elections, quantifying the opportunity using granular EPRC index data, and providing institutional investors with a sequenced entry framework. For much of the past twelve months, Uganda’s private sector operated under a state of suspended animation. Contract awards stalled. Bank credit tightened. Cross-border freight diverted. And by December 2025, the Economic Policy Research Centre’s (EPRC) flagship Business Climate Index had registered its first sub-50 contractions since the depths of the COVID-19 emergency. The narrative, in boardrooms from Nairobi to London, was simple: elections pause economies. Investors wait. Activity resumes. Mean…