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Kenya is one of 23 African nations at risk of debt distress. The major causes of debt distress include poor fiscal management and macroeconomic frameworks to sustain growth, a shift in debt structure toward more costly financing sources, and excessive government expenditure levels.
Kenya’s debt was at about 70 per cent of GDP in 2021, up from 50 per cent in 2015. China is Kenya’s biggest bilateral creditor. It accounts for 67 per cent of the bilateral debt (primarily for infrastructure projects), an increase from 13 per cent in 2011.
Some worry that monetary policy is still excessively accommodating, given that rate hikes have not matched inflation. Policy cooperation may be beneficial. Fiscal consolidation and a mix of rate rises and currency depreciation may play a role in nations where policy is overly permissive.
The shaky recovery in Sub-Saharan Africa, coupled with domestic demand constraints, has not significantly fueled inflation so far. However, in the coming months, governments and policymakers must carefully monitor and prioritise tackling the rising inflation in Africa.