Steep rise in global oil market prices has seen Kenya announce steepest monthly increase in years, with petrol and diesel increasing by KSh28 and KSh40 a litre. Kerosene prices remain unchanged.

Kenyan consumers and businesses are bracing for a severe economic jolt after the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) announced maximum retail petroleum prices that will see super petrol rise by KShs 28.69 per litre and diesel by a staggering KShs 40.30 per litre effective 15th April 2026 through 14th May 2026.

In what ranks as one of the steepest monthly hikes in recent memory, the new prices reflect a perfect storm of soaring international crude costs and a weakening shilling. Only kerosene remained unchanged, offering a thin lifeline to low-income households who depend on it for cooking and lighting.

From Wednesday, motorists in Nairobi will pay KShs 206.97 for super petrol, up from KShs 178.28 previously, and KShs 206.84 for diesel, compared to KShs 166.54, a near 25 per cent leap in a single month. Kerosene holds at KShs 152.78.

Global oil market turmoil hits Kenyan pumps

EPRA attributed the dramatic rise to explosive increases in the landed cost of imported fuels between February and March 2026. Super petrol’s landed cost jumped 41.53 per cent, from $582.11 to $823.87 per cubic metre. Diesel suffered an even sharper spike of 68.72 per cent, climbing from $636.45 to $1,073.2 per cubic metre.

Most alarming is kerosene, whose landed cost more than doubled up 105.15 per cent from $639.48 to $1,311.93 per cubic metre, though EPRA opted not to pass this on to consumers at the pump.

“The Government will further cushion consumers through the Petroleum Development Levy (PDL) Fund by utilising approximately KShs 6.2 Billion to stabilise pump prices,” the authority stated, while also noting that VAT on all three products had been reduced from 16 per cent to 13 per cent to soften the blow.

International price data in the gazette notice shows super petrol traded at $973.39 per metric tonne in March 2026, up from $686.53 in February—a dramatic acceleration. Diesel rocketed from $637.76 to $1,383.78 per metric tonne over the same period.

Exchange rate adds to higher global oil market pain

The Kenyan shilling has not escaped unscathed. The USD/KShs exchange rate crept up from 129.44 in February to 130.08 in March 2026, further inflating the cost of dollar-denominated imports. With Kenya importing all its refined petroleum requirements, every cent of dollar strength is magnified at the pump.

EPRA noted that the prices are calculated under Section 101(y) of the Petroleum Act 2019 and Legal Notice No. 192 of 2022, and include VAT, excise duty adjusted for inflation, and multiple levies.

Where every shilling goes

For a litre of super petrol in Nairobi priced at KShs 206.97, the landed cost accounts for KShs 107.23. Taxes and levies consume a massive KShs 82.09, including KShs 21.95 excise duty, KShs 25 road maintenance levy, KShs 5.40 petroleum development levy, and KShs 24.35 VAT. Margins for importers and dealers add KShs 17.39, while distribution and storage take KShs 4.93.

Notably, the price stabilisation mechanism contributed a negative KShs 4.68 for petrol, meaning the government is effectively subsidising the pump price using the PDL fund—and a staggering negative KShs 108.10 for kerosene, revealing just how heavily the state is absorbing costs to prevent an even larger household crisis.

For diesel, the stabilisation deficit stands at negative KShs 23.92 per litre, underscoring the pressure on transport and agriculture sectors.

Regional disparities: Mandera most expensive

The new pricing regime shows wide geographical variation. Mandera tops the list for super petrol at KShs 229.15 per litre, followed by Moyale at KShs 222.91 and Wajir at KShs 222.62. The lowest prices appear in Mombasa (KShs 203.69) and Kaloleni (KShs 203.58), reflecting proximity to the port.

Diesel follows a similar pattern, with Mandera again highest at KShs 229.02, while Mombasa residents pay KShs 203.56. Kerosene ranges from KShs 149.40 in Kaloleni to KShs 174.96 in Mandera.

Economic ripple effects due to higher fuel prices

The timing could hardly be worse. Kenya is still navigating inflationary pressures from recent droughts and a volatile shilling. Transport operators, from matatu owners to long-haul truckers, will face immediate margin compression, inevitably passing costs to commuters and goods.

Agriculture, heavily reliant on diesel for irrigation pumps, tractors, and post-harvest handling, faces a double squeeze ahead of planting seasons. Manufacturing, logistics, and even air travel (through aviation fuel’s correlation with kerosene benchmarks) will feel the heat.

EPRA, however, sought to reassure the public: “The purpose of the Petroleum Pricing Regulations is to cap the retail prices of petroleum products so that importation and other prudently incurred costs are recovered while ensuring reasonable prices to consumers.”

A rare reprieve for kerosene consumers

The decision to freeze kerosene prices despite a tripling of its landed cost is unusual and politically significant. Kerosene is the fuel of choice for millions of low-income Kenyan households who cannot afford LPG. Any increase would have triggered immediate hardship and likely public outcry.

But the government’s ability to sustain such subsidies through the PDL fund is finite. With KShs 6.2 billion already deployed for this month alone, analysts warn that without a sustained drop in global oil prices or a strengthening of the shilling, the coming months could bring even more painful adjustments.

For now, Kenyan motorists and businesses must digest the reality of a KShs 40 per litre jump in diesel, a cost that will reverberate through every sector of the economy, from the price of a loaf of bread to the fare of a city matatu.